A model to predict the occurrence of Asiatic black bears at the municipal level using mast production data

Abstract: This study analyzed how 3 Fagaceae species (Fagus crenata, Quercus crispula, and Q. serrata) affect the occurrence of Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) in and around residential areas from generalized linear mixed models based on monitoring data of bear occurrence and masting over 14 years (2005–2018) in municipalities in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan. The constructed models suggest that it is important to consider the effects of mast production by multiple dominant Fagaceae species, not only within a municipality but also in the surrounding area, to predict bear occurrence with practical accuracy at the municipal level. The accuracy of the predictive model increased as the number of Fagaceae species in the model increased. Models differed among municipalities in their accuracy to predict bear occurrence, which was related to the effect of F. crenata mast production, which was correlated with the proportion of F. crenata forests in each municipality. I suggest that the accuracy of prediction at the municipal level depended on the effect of F. crenata mast production because the spatial and temporal synchrony of F. crenata mast production was stronger than that of other species. To take preventive action to reduce conflict between humans and bears, it would be useful to construct a model to predict bear occurrence at the municipal level based on monitoring data of mast production in multiple Fagaceae species.