宏观经济不稳定与恐怖主义关系;巴基斯坦案例中的经验证据

Hafsa Jabeen, Ayesha Naz
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摘要

当前的研究试图分析1970年至2020年期间巴基斯坦宏观经济不稳定与恐怖主义之间的关系。六个重要变量作为衡量宏观经济不稳定性的代理,包括外债、预算赤字、贸易赤字、实际有效汇率(REER)、通货膨胀和失业。结果表明,宏观经济不稳定性指标与恐怖主义之间存在长期协整关系。使用FMOLS来获得估计数,它显示预算赤字和外债与恐怖主义负相关。这表明政府在基础设施等不同项目上的支出创造了经济机会,因此减少了恐怖主义。此外,福利方案还能改善社会经济变量的表现,从而转化为减少暴力的和谐环境。贸易逆差、通货膨胀和失业变量对恐怖主义有正向影响,而REER不显著。在贸易逆差的背景下,进口增加会导致国内产业的就业岗位减少,从而打击弱势群体。因此,这些群体的生命机会成本降低,成为恐怖活动一部分的可能性增加。通货膨胀也通过降低购买力而使弱势群体陷入贫困,失业的个人也容易成为参与侵略行为的目标。本文还通过主成分分析(PCA)构建了包含6个变量的宏观经济不稳定性指标。模型结果表明,宏观经济不稳定指数和GDP对恐怖主义有正向影响。就GDP而言,合理的理由可能是收入分配不均导致恐怖活动增加。就政策影响而言,政府需要通过投资这些对福利有直接和间接影响的项目,将资源从非生产性用途转移到生产性用途。通过这种方式,贫困群体将享受经济福利,并参与生产活动,而不是成为恐怖主义的帮凶。
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Macroeconomic Instability and Terrorism Nexus; Empirical Evidence in Case of Pakistan
The current study is an attempt to analyze the association between macroeconomic instability and terrorism in Pakistan over the period of 1970 to 2020. Six important variables are taken as a proxy to measure macroeconomic instability which includes external debt, budget deficit, trade deficit, real effective exchange rate (REER), inflation and unemployment. Results indicate that there exists a long run cointegration relationship between the indictors of macroeconomic instability and terrorism. FMOLS is employed to obtain the estimates and it reveals that budget deficit and external debt is negatively associated with terrorism. It indicates that government expenditures on different project such as infrastructure create economic opportunities, therefore, reduces terrorism. Furthermore, welfare programmes also improve the performance of socioeconomic variables that translates into harmonized environment which lessens violence. The variable of trade deficit, inflation and unemployment has positive impact on terrorism while REER is insignificant. In context of trade deficit, higher imports results in job loss of domestic industries, hence, it hits the vulnerable groups. Therefore, the opportunity cost of life of these groups reduces and it increases the probability to become a part of terrorist activities. Inflation also pushes the vulnerable groups in poverty by reduces the purchasing power and unemployed individuals are also easy target to get involve themselves in acts of aggression. This study also constructs the macroeconomic instability index including the six variables through principal component analysis (PCA). Results of this model show that macroeconomic instability index and GDP has positive effect on terrorism. In case of GDP, the plausible reason could be uneven income distribution that increases terrorist activities. For the policy implications, government need to divert the resources from non-productive to productive uses through the investment in such projects which has direct and indirect impact on the welfare. In this way deprived group will enjoy economic perks and engage themselves in productive activities rather than becoming a helping hand in terrorism.
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