Modelling sustainable development: systems dynamic and input–ouput approaches

This paper discusses alternative approaches to modelling economy–environment systems from the perspective of sustainable development. We distinguish between systems' dynamic methods and economic approaches, including input–output (I/O) models. We then discuss the structure of two models constructed for Scotland. Firstly, a hierarchical, dynamic model is used to look at long-term trends in population, resource use and pollution. Secondly, an environmentally extended I/O model is used to estimate the effects of economic policy and structural change on pollution levels and output. We conclude with some comments on the possible future developments in modelling sustainable development.