Driverless, or Carless Future? Socio-technical Scenarios of Autonomous Urban Mobility in the Czech Republic

The autonomous vehicles are in the phase of prototypes and proofs-of-concept, yet the promises and visions of autonomous future already drive significant changes in long term urban planning. We utilise the socio-technical transition approach to autonomous vehicles' services to help to understand the dynamics of the development and to direct public policies in order to foster a more environmentally and socially sustainable urban mobility. The research uses a three-round Delphi method with experts and stakeholders in the field of research and development to explore potential pathways and develop a multi-level perspective (MLP) socio-technical model of autonomous vehicles' implementation in Czech cities. There already exist stabilising and destabilising pressures within the automobile regimes, closely connected to the autonomous vehicles development, which may result in divergent, more or less disrupting pathways. Considering a varyingly high level of uncertainty in specific regimes, we have developed three diverse socio-technical scenarios: 1. A transformation - 'sceptical-public transport' pathway, barring any significant technological or societal advancements towards autonomous driving in Czech urban context; 2. A reconfiguration - 'slow incremental development' scenario, in which the incremental progress enables more flexible and effective public transport services, shared mobility and promotes electromobility; and 3. A technological substitution - 'techno-optimist' scenario, relying heavily on fast technological progress towards fully autonomous vehicles without requiring vast additional infrastructure and use of V2X communication. Through analysis of the promising niche innovations and their regime-landscape interactions, the article devises a scope for possible policy actions in order to support more sustainable autonomous mobility development.