递归划分算法(RPA):一种非参数分类系统

L. J. Perera, R. B. Kerr, H. Kimura, F. Lima
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摘要

Leo Breiman (Breiman et al., 1984,1998)是一位喜欢实际应用的统计学家,这使他开展了几项原创性研究。在Friedman(1977)开始的工作的基础上,他开发了一个非常精确的分类系统,不需要统计假设,因为它是一种非参数方法。本研究的目的是介绍Breiman的工作,即递归划分算法。RPA将作为一种非参数方法引入信用分析,允许纳入错误分类的成本。一些研究,如Novak和LaDue(1999)和Marais, Patais和Wolfson(1984),已经表明了它在分析和授予信用方面的适用性。从Friedman(1977)的早期工作到Steinberg和Golovnya(2006)开发的CART模型,经历了漫长的道路。本文除了介绍RPA的基本原理和使用的可能性外,还试图通过与参数模型(被认为是最传统和最经典的分析方法)判别分析(Discriminant Analysis)进行比较,显示结果的有效性。结果表明,RPA是一种优越的技术,也是分析人员易于直观的技术。本文的结论证实了RPA系统是一种强大的分类工具,具有非参数化的优势,但学术界和市场专业人士对此知之甚少。
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The Recursive Partitioning Algorithm (RPA): A Nonparametric Classification System
Leo Breiman (Breiman et al., 1984, 1998) was a statistician who was fond of practical applications, and this led him to develop several original studies. Based on the work begun by Friedman (1977), he developed a very accurate classification system, without the need for statistical assumptions, since it is a nonparametric methodology. The aim of this study is to present the work of Breiman known as the Recursive Partitioning Algorithm. The RPA will be introduced as a nonparametric approach to credit analysis, allowing for the incorporation of the costs of misclassifications. Several studies, such as Novak and LaDue (1999) and Marais, Patais and Wolfson (1984), have shown its applicability in the analysis and granting of credit. A long road has been traveled from the early work of Friedman (1977) to the CART model developed by Steinberg and Golovnya (2006). This paper – apart from presenting the fundamentals and possibilities for use of the RPA – seeks to show the effectiveness of the results attained through a comparison with a parametric model, the Discriminant Analysis, considered the most traditional and classical method of analysis. The results show the RPA to be a superior technique, as well as a technique of easy intuition by analysts. The conclusion of the paper confirms that the RPA system – little known and discussed by academics and market professionals – is a powerful classificatory tool, with the advantage of being nonparametric.
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