一种利用构造尺度计算信息价值的简化方法

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI:10.1287/deca.2023.0474
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引用次数: 2

摘要

信息的价值是决策分析中的一个核心概念,用于量化如果在采取行动之前能够解决认知不确定性,那么决策的预期结果将得到多少改善。然而,对信息价值进行定量分析的挑战之一是计算要求很高,特别是需要预测作为备选行动和不确定性来源的函数的结果。然而,信息价值的概念在一些决策的早期框架中很重要,在这些预测可用之前。我们提出了一种基于构造尺度(CVOI)的信息价值度量方法,该方法基于完美信息期望值(EVPI)的代数,但对专家和分析人员的要求较低。CVOI计算将EVPI分解为表示不确定性与决策相关性的贡献和表示不确定性大小的贡献;然后为每项贡献提出构建的比例量表。我们展示了使用CVOI来确定面对气候变化的候鸟管理相关的研究重点。资助:本研究部分由美国地质调查局国家气候适应科学中心资助。
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A Simplified Method for Value of Information Using Constructed Scales
The value of information is a central concept in decision analysis, used to quantify how much the expected outcome of a decision would be improved if epistemic uncertainty could be resolved prior to committing to a course of action. One of the challenges, however, in quantitative analysis of the value of information is that the calculations are demanding, especially in requiring predictions of outcomes as a function of alternative actions and sources of uncertainty. However, the concept of value of information is important in early framing of some decisions, before such predictions are available. We propose a novel measure of the value of information based on constructed scales (CVOI), grounded in the algebra of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), but requiring less of experts and analysts. The CVOI calculation decomposes EVPI into a contribution representing the relevance of the uncertainty to the decision and a contribution representing the magnitude of uncertainty; constructed ratio scales are then proposed for each contribution. We demonstrate the use of CVOI to identify research priorities related to migratory bird management in the face of climate change. Funding: This work was funded in part by the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center.
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来源期刊
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis MANAGEMENT-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
19
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