基于贝叶斯网络方法的柔性多状态开关可靠性分析

Jiawei Wang, Haibo Zhao, Zhi Zhang, Ende Hu, Mengdi Fu, Yanhui Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了准确建立柔性多状态开关(FMSS)可靠性模型,挖掘部件可靠性的弱点,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的柔性多状态开关可靠性建模方法。首先,利用马尔可夫过程建立了多状态可靠性模型。然后,建立了MMC的贝叶斯网络。通过算例验证了模型的正确性。计算了SM、MMC和FMSS的可靠度。分析了子模块冗余对FMSS的影响。分析了FMSS的薄弱环节。本文的研究成果可为FMSS在配电网中的应用提供支持。
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Reliability Analysis of Flexible Multiple State Switch Based on Bayesian Network Method
In order to accurately establish the reliability model of flexible multiple state(FMSS) switch and excavate the weaknesses of component reliability, a method of reliability modeling of FMSS based on Bayesian network is proposed in this paper. Firstly, a multi-state reliability model is established by Markov process. Then, the Bayesian network of MMC is established. The correctness of the model is verified by examples. The reliability of SM, MMC and FMSS is calculated. The influence of submodule redundancy on FMSS is analyzed. The weak link of FMSS is analyzed. The research results in this paper can provide support for the application of FMSS in distribution network.
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