{"title":"从足球博彩赔率的过度反应中获利","authors":"E. Wheatcroft","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2019-0009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Betting odds are generally considered to represent accurate reflections of the underlying probabilities for the outcomes of sporting events. There are, however, known to be a number of inherent biases such as the favorite-longshot bias in which outsiders are generally priced with poorer value odds than favorites. Using data from European soccer matches, this paper demonstrates the existence of another bias in which the match odds overreact to favorable and unfavorable runs of results. A statistic is defined, called the Combined Odds Distribution (COD) statistic, which measures the performance of a team relative to expectations given their odds over previous matches. Teams that overperform expectations tend to have a high COD statistic and those that underperform tend to have a low COD statistic. Using data from twenty different leagues over twelve seasons, it is shown that teams with a low COD statistic tend to be assigned more generous odds by bookmakers. This can be exploited and a sustained and robust profit can be made. It is suggested that the bias in the odds can be explained in the context of the “hot hand fallacy”, in which gamblers overestimate variation in the ability of each team over time.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2020-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Profiting from overreaction in soccer betting odds\",\"authors\":\"E. Wheatcroft\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/jqas-2019-0009\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract Betting odds are generally considered to represent accurate reflections of the underlying probabilities for the outcomes of sporting events. There are, however, known to be a number of inherent biases such as the favorite-longshot bias in which outsiders are generally priced with poorer value odds than favorites. Using data from European soccer matches, this paper demonstrates the existence of another bias in which the match odds overreact to favorable and unfavorable runs of results. A statistic is defined, called the Combined Odds Distribution (COD) statistic, which measures the performance of a team relative to expectations given their odds over previous matches. Teams that overperform expectations tend to have a high COD statistic and those that underperform tend to have a low COD statistic. Using data from twenty different leagues over twelve seasons, it is shown that teams with a low COD statistic tend to be assigned more generous odds by bookmakers. This can be exploited and a sustained and robust profit can be made. It is suggested that the bias in the odds can be explained in the context of the “hot hand fallacy”, in which gamblers overestimate variation in the ability of each team over time.\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-05-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0009\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0009","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Profiting from overreaction in soccer betting odds
Abstract Betting odds are generally considered to represent accurate reflections of the underlying probabilities for the outcomes of sporting events. There are, however, known to be a number of inherent biases such as the favorite-longshot bias in which outsiders are generally priced with poorer value odds than favorites. Using data from European soccer matches, this paper demonstrates the existence of another bias in which the match odds overreact to favorable and unfavorable runs of results. A statistic is defined, called the Combined Odds Distribution (COD) statistic, which measures the performance of a team relative to expectations given their odds over previous matches. Teams that overperform expectations tend to have a high COD statistic and those that underperform tend to have a low COD statistic. Using data from twenty different leagues over twelve seasons, it is shown that teams with a low COD statistic tend to be assigned more generous odds by bookmakers. This can be exploited and a sustained and robust profit can be made. It is suggested that the bias in the odds can be explained in the context of the “hot hand fallacy”, in which gamblers overestimate variation in the ability of each team over time.
期刊介绍:
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.