从足球博彩赔率的过度反应中获利

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-05-04 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2019-0009
E. Wheatcroft
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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要投注赔率通常被认为是对体育赛事结果的潜在概率的准确反映。然而,已知存在一些固有的偏见,比如最受欢迎的长线偏见,即局外人的估值几率通常低于最受欢迎的人。利用欧洲足球比赛的数据,本文证明了另一种偏差的存在,即比赛赔率对有利和不利的结果反应过度。定义了一个统计数据,称为组合赔率分布(Combined Odds Distribution, COD)统计数据,它根据球队在之前比赛中的赔率来衡量球队的表现。超出预期的团队往往有较高的COD统计数据,而那些表现不佳的团队往往有较低的COD统计数据。使用来自20个不同联赛的12个赛季的数据,结果表明,COD数据较低的球队往往会被博彩公司分配更大的赔率。这一点可以加以利用,从而获得持续而强劲的利润。有人认为,赔率上的偏差可以用“热手谬误”来解释,即赌徒高估了每支球队在一段时间内的能力变化。
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Profiting from overreaction in soccer betting odds
Abstract Betting odds are generally considered to represent accurate reflections of the underlying probabilities for the outcomes of sporting events. There are, however, known to be a number of inherent biases such as the favorite-longshot bias in which outsiders are generally priced with poorer value odds than favorites. Using data from European soccer matches, this paper demonstrates the existence of another bias in which the match odds overreact to favorable and unfavorable runs of results. A statistic is defined, called the Combined Odds Distribution (COD) statistic, which measures the performance of a team relative to expectations given their odds over previous matches. Teams that overperform expectations tend to have a high COD statistic and those that underperform tend to have a low COD statistic. Using data from twenty different leagues over twelve seasons, it is shown that teams with a low COD statistic tend to be assigned more generous odds by bookmakers. This can be exploited and a sustained and robust profit can be made. It is suggested that the bias in the odds can be explained in the context of the “hot hand fallacy”, in which gamblers overestimate variation in the ability of each team over time.
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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