The Black Sea in the Shadow of War

Abstract As it has unfolded, the Russia–Ukraine war has provided a reminder of the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the global significance of maritime communications. It has also highlighted the particular challenges of maintaining a naval balance in the Black Sea, including the provisions of the Montreux Convention and how Turkiye is applying them. This is posing an increasing dilemma for NATO as it ponders whether and how to assert principles of naval presence and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, with implications far beyond the immediate region. In balancing deterrence and risk, an incremental but also more determined stance on returning to the Black Sea may be needed.