交通基础设施和增长的公共支出:来自尼泊尔的证据

S. Khanal, K. B. Karki, S. Chhetri
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摘要

在经历了几十年的冲突和不稳定的政治局势之后,各部门的公共投资迅速增长。随着联邦共和国的宣布,尼泊尔将开始加速经济增长。这在一定程度上引起了政策制定者对其对经济增长影响的担忧。而政府对交通基础设施的投资是核心战略之一,被称为“基础设施中的基础设施”。因此,本研究的主要目的是解释尼泊尔交通部门的经济增长与公共支出之间的关系。本研究主要集中在三个系统(村务委员会、民主和共和国)的五年发展计划中支出的区别。这项研究使用了1975年至2016年期间收集的时间序列数据。本研究使用了统计和计量经济学工具。结果表明,共和体制下政府对公共支出的投资有增加的趋势。研究表明,变量在第一个差值上是平稳的。得到的回归模型经诊断检验是令人满意的(误差呈正态分布,无序列相关和均方差)。这些数据解释了运输资本支出对国内生产总值的积极和显著影响,因此,它有助于经济增长。此外,研究结果还显示了运输资本支出对国内生产总值的短期单向因果关系。
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Public Expenditure on Transportation Infrastructure and Growth: Evidence from Nepal
The speedy growth in public investment in various sectors was assumed after decades of conflict and an unstable political situation. With the declaration of the Federal Republic, Nepal is going to embark on accelerated economic growth. This has somewhat caused concerns among policymakers of its implication for economic growth. And the government investment in transportation infrastructure is one of the core strategies, called the ‘infrastructure of infrastructures’. The main aim of this study is, therefore, to explain the relationship between economic growth and public expenditure in the transportation sector in Nepal. Primarily, this study has focused on the distinction of expenditures in the five-year development plans in three systems (Panchayat, Democratic, and Republic). This study used time series data collected between 1975 and 2016. The statistical and econometric tools have been used for the study. The result shows that the trend of government investment on public expenditure has increased in the Republic system. This study reveals that the variables are stationary on the first difference. The obtained regression model is satisfactory by diagnostic tests (errors are normally distributed, no serial correlation and homoscedastic). The data explain the positive and significant influence of Transportation Capital Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, and, hence, it is contributing to economic growth. Furthermore, the results show short-run unidirectional causation from Transportation Capital Expenditure to Gross Domestic Product.
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