METEOR:一步一步探索指标聚合在多标准决策辅助中的效果——在德国柏林的水管理应用

U. Simon, R. Brüggemann, H. Behrendt, E. Shulenberger, S. Pudenz
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引用次数: 23

摘要

METEOR (METhod of Evaluation by ORder)是一种基于偏序理论的新型评价方法。METEOR结合了透明的决策支持和方便的数据分析工具,并能够将利益相关者的偏好纳入决策过程。其基本思想是系统地逐步汇总指标,包括它们的权重。本文应用METEOR对德国柏林和波茨坦复杂的地表水系统进行了9种水管理策略的生态水文效应评价。总共确定了14个河段,每个河段都用一套四种水化学指标进行评价。指标的汇总在两个层面上进行:空间上与河段有关,主题上与四个指标本身有关。METEOR的结果与PROMETHEE方法的结果一致。然而,METEOR的优势在于(1)识别指标聚集的敏感步骤,(2)提取场景优缺点的解释背景信息。这两个主题都提高了评估过程的透明度,从而支持公众接受决策。
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METEOR: a step-by-step procedure to explore effects of indicator aggregation in multi criteria decision aiding – application to water management in Berlin, Germany
METEOR (METhod of Evaluation by ORder) is introduced as a new evaluation approach, based on partial order theory. METEOR combines transparent decision support and convenient tools for data analysis with the ability to include stakeholders' preferences in the decision process. The basic idea is a systematic step-by-step aggregation of indicators, including their weighting. We applied METEOR to evaluate the eco-hydrological effects of nine water management strategies upon the complex surface water system of Berlin and Potsdam, Germany. Altogether 14 river sections are defined, each of which is evaluated by a set of four hydro-chemical indicators. Aggregation of indicators was performed on two levels: spatially with respect to the river sections, and thematically to the four indicators themselves. The METEOR result is in good agreement with that obtained by the PROMETHEE approach. However, advantages of METEOR are (1) identification of sensitive steps of indicator aggregation, and (2) extraction of explanatory background information about advantages and disadvantages of scenarios. Both topics enhance the transparency of the evaluation process and thus support public acceptance of the decision.
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