交叉口碰撞倾向性的空间溢出效应建模——以俄亥俄州县域为例

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2022-10-11 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2022.2129892
Wei Lin, Heng Wei, John E. Ash
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引用次数: 1

摘要

交叉口交通事故的特征不仅受事故发生的主体交叉口的影响,还与邻近分析区的环境条件有关。将公路安全改善措施主动纳入长期交通规划过程,解决微观安全问题的空间效应的交叉口碰撞分析研究较少。本文的目的是建立一个启发式的交通安全分析系统,将空间溢出分析与道路安全评价相结合,将微观变量与宏观变量相结合。利用GIS环境下的k -均值聚类技术,从俄亥俄州88个县中识别出8个路口碰撞倾向性较高的热点县。其余的县称为普通县。然后,采用一种创新的综合广义线性模型,分别识别出热点县和普通县的11个和20个影响路口碰撞倾向的显著变量。为了验证宏观层面和微观层面测量的交叉口碰撞频率模型的兼容性,以辛辛那提的雷丁路、热点县的汉密尔顿县、梅森市的I-71和沃伦县的黎巴嫩市为例进行了测试,结果显示出良好的一致性。
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Modeling spatial spillover effect on intersection crash propensity: a case study at the county level in Ohio
Abstract The characteristics of intersection crashes are not only affected by the subject intersection where the crash occurs but also are correlated with environmental conditions of neighboring analysis zones. There are few studies on intersection crash analysis to solve certain spatial effects on microscopic safety issues by proactively incorporating highway safety improvement measures into the long-term transportation planning process. The objective of this paper is to develop a heuristic traffic safety analysis system where spatial spillovers analysis is integrated into roadway safety assessment to incorporate micro variables and macro variables. With K-means clustering technique in a GIS environment, 8 hotspot counties are identified from 88 counties in Ohio, which have high intersection crash propensity. The rest of counties are identified as general counties. Then, an innovative integrated Generalized Linear Model is adopted to identify 11 and 20 significant variables that contribute to the intersection crash propensity in hotspot counties and general counties, respectively. To verify compatibility of intersection crash frequency models with macro-level and micro-level measurement, Reading Road in Cincinnati, Hamilton County (hotspot county) and I-71 in Mason City and Lebanon City of Warren County (general county) are used as examples for the test, and the results show a good consistence.
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CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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