灰色理论模型在江苏省电力需求预测中的应用

Xuemei Shen, Zhengnan Lu
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引用次数: 12

摘要

基于灰色系统理论,建立了江苏省电力需求预测模型,并用1997 ~ 2012年的数据进行了验证。结果表明,该预测模型具有“优越”的精度。这证明GM(1,1)模型用于江苏省电力需求预测可以完全满足电力预测的需要。同时,应用该模型对江苏省2013 - 2015年(中国“十二五”规划结束之年)的电力需求进行了预测,结果表明,未来几年江苏省的用电量将快速增长。到2015年,将达到0.7187万亿千瓦·时,这就要求加快发电速度,以满足江苏省未来几年经济发展的需要。
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The Application of Grey Theory Model in the Predication of Jiangsu Province's Electric Power Demand

Based on the grey system theory, the paper establishes an electricity demand forecasting model for Jiangsu province, and verifies it using the data from the year 1997 to 2012. The result shows that the accuracy of this forecast model is “superior”. This proved that GM (1, 1) model used for the electricity demand forecasting of Jiangsu province can fully meet the needs of the forecast of electricity. In the mean time, the electricity demand of Jiangsu from the year 2013 to 2015(which year is the end of China's twelfth five-year plan) was forecasted by applying the model and the result shows that the electricity consumption in Jiangsu province will increase rapidly in the next few years. Up to the year 2015, it will reach 0.7187 trillion kW·h, which requests the acceleration of the generation of power, so as to meet the needs of the economic development of Jiangsu province in the next few years.

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