埃塞俄比亚外债的宏观经济决定因素:ARDL协整方法

Q2 Social Sciences Society and Economy Pub Date : 2020-07-31 DOI:10.1556/204.2020.00013
S. Beyene, Balázs Kotosz
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引用次数: 9

摘要

虽然埃塞俄比亚是重债穷国之一,但缺乏关于其外债决定因素的实证研究。本文旨在通过研究1981年至2016年间埃塞俄比亚外债的宏观经济决定因素来填补这一空白,使用两缺口和三缺口模型作为理论框架和自回归分布滞后约束检验方法。结果表明,从长期来看,储蓄-投资缺口、贸易赤字、财政赤字和偿债对外债具有显著的正向影响。然而,国内生产总值的增长率、贸易开放程度和通货膨胀率对国家的外债有负向和显著的影响。这些结果与理论框架的二间隙和三间隙模型的预测相吻合。该研究认为,适当的宏观经济、社会和供给侧政策对于减少埃塞俄比亚的外债至关重要。
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Macroeconomic determinants of external indebtedness of Ethiopia: ARDL approach to co-integration
Although Ethiopia is one of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), there is a lack of empirical studies about the determinants of its external indebtedness. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining the macroeconomic determinants of the external indebtedness of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2016, using the two- and three-gap models as a theoretical framework and an autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach. The result shows that in the long run, the savings-investment gap, trade deficit, fiscal deficit, and debt service have a positive and significant impact on external indebtedness. However, the growth rate of gross domestic product, trade openness, and inflation negatively and significantly affect the external indebtedness of the country. These results coincide with the predictions of the two- and three-gap models of the theoretical framework. The study argues that appropriate macroeconomic, social, and supply-side policies are essential to reducing the external indebtedness of Ethiopia.
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来源期刊
Society and Economy
Society and Economy Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
26
审稿时长
28 weeks
期刊介绍: The double-blind peer-reviewed journal publishes original research articles and book reviews in the fields of economics, social sciences, and business studies, which address social and economic issues in Central and Eastern Europe or have relevance for social and economic development in this region. While it welcomes articles from the international academic community, Society and Economy seeks in particular to provide an international forum for scholars working in the research traditions of this region. The journal welcomes submissions of high-quality and multi-disciplinary articles that address social, demographic, political, economic and industrial trends and challenges. Society and Economy is a gold open access journal since 2019 but authors are not requested to pay an article processing fee.
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