尼泊尔生咖啡底价走势分析

G. Luitel, B. Acharya
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摘要

尼泊尔咖啡产业经历了漫长的生产、加工和销售过程。咖啡作为一种具有底价的高价值作物,帮助农民维持生产。本文利用国家茶和咖啡发展局的二手数据,回顾了最低限价制度的历史沿革及其趋势。楼面价格被平均并转换成绿豆当量(GBE)单位,并在不同时区进行分析。调查发现,最低限价制度多年来一直在发生变化。最低价格大致是根据早些年的运输成本计算的。2002/03-2005/06年实行鲜果分级定价。最终,我们针对不同品质等级推出了更精确和切实可行的楼面价格措施,从2006/07至2014/15,我们实施了近十年。从2015/16年开始,之前的方法在有机认证的基础上略有修改,目前仍在实践中。此外,研究发现,多年来,生咖啡的价格明显上涨。生咖啡的价格指数在1994/95年仅为26.37,而在2021/22年上涨了9倍多,达到243.12。生咖啡的价格越高,在国际市场上就越没有竞争力,所以最低价格应该根据国际市场趋势进行调整,同时考虑宏观经济参数。
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Analysis of floor price trend of raw coffee in Nepal
Nepalese coffee industry has passed a long way of production, processing and marketing. Coffee as a high value crop with floor price helped farmers to sustain their production. This study reviews the historic approaches of floor price fixation system and its trend using secondary data of National Tea and Coffee Development Board (NTCDB). The floor prices were averaged and converted into Green Bean Equivalent (GBE) units and analysed in different time zones. It was found that the floor price fixation system has been changing over years. The floor price was roughly based on transportation cost in earlier years. Grading-based price fixation of fresh cherry came into practice during 2002/03-2005/06. Eventually, more precise and practicable floor price measures were introduced for different quality grades, which was practiced for almost a decade from 2006/07 to 2014/15. Starting from 2015/16, previous approach was slightly modified based on organic certification which is still in practice. Moreover, it was found that the price of raw coffee has increased notably over years. While the price index of raw coffee in 1994/95 was merely 26.37, it has increased by more than nine times to 243.12 in 2021/22. Since higher priced raw coffee will not make it competitive in the global market, the floor price should be adjusted based on international market trend, considering macroeconomic parameters as well.
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