基于层次分析法的水处理工程风险排序决策模型

Y. Kheradmand, A. Honarbakhsh, S. M. Movahedifar, A. R. Afshari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用项目管理协会(PMI)发布的风险管理标准《项目管理知识体系》(PMBOK)作为评估风险管理的主要方法。本文的总体目的是通过层次分析法(AHP)对水和废水项目的风险进行排序。这里考虑的统计人口涵盖了供水和污水处理工程所涉及的所有因素。根据摩根表确定样本量,最终选出59名高水平专家。德尔菲法是一种通过调查专家小组得出集体意见或决定的方法,用于风险识别。将原始数据输入Expert Choice程序,基于AHP决策模型,完成数据分析。结果表明,预算赤字是该项目最关键的风险因素,其次是通货膨胀和国际制裁。此外,与扩大项目与其他地区的关系有关的风险因素、该地区的宗教位置、该地区的环境危害和项目地点是最不重要的排名项目。
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Risk Prioritization in Water and Wastewater Projects Using a Decision Model Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process
The risk management standard published by the Project Management Institute (PMI), entitled Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), was utilized in the present study as the primary method for evaluation of risk management. The general purpose of this article is to prioritize risk in water and wastewater projects through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The statistical population considered here covers all the factors involved in water and sewage projects. Sample size determination was done based on the Morgan table, which resulted in selecting 59 high-expertise experts. The Delphi method, a process used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts, was used for risk identification. After entering the raw data into an Expert Choice program, based on the AHP decision model, data analysis was completed. The obtained results indicate that budget deficit is the most critical risk factor of the project, preceding by inflation and international sanctions. Furthermore, risk factors related to expanding the project relationship with other areas, the area's religious location, and the area's environmental hazards, and the project site are the least important ranking items.
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来源期刊
Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering
Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering Engineering-Building and Construction
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
12 weeks
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