极端事件的频率分析及强度持续时间频率曲线的形成——以埃塞俄比亚Jimma镇为例

Fikru
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摘要

降雨数据的频率分析可以确定未来的极端事件和发展IDF曲线。本研究的目的是分析降水极端事件发生的频率,并建立降水极端事件的强度、持续时间和频率(IDF)曲线。在这项研究中,使用了国家气象局(NMA)的30年日降雨量数据(1986-2015)。采用图形法和统计法绘制IDF曲线。结果表明,在95%的置信区间上,一般极值(GEV)是年最大日观测数据的最佳拟合分布函数。根据计算得到的分日雨量资料,24小时的最高雨量值。100年重现期降水量为83.86 mm, 10min和2年重现期降水量最小,为13.34 mm。观测所得IDF曲线与计算所得IDF曲线的相关系数为(r2 =0.99)。
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Frequency Analysis of Extreme Events and Developing Intensity Duration Frequency Curves: The Case of Jimma Town, Ethiopia
Frequency analysis of rainfall data enables to determine the future extreme events and developing IDF curves. The object of this study was to analysis the frequency of extreme events in precipitation, and develop Intensity, duration and frequency (IDF) curves. In this study 30 years daily rainfall data (1986-2015) from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) was used. To develop IDF curves graphical and statistical methods were used. The result obtained indicates, the General Extreme Value (GEV) was the best fitted distribution function to the maximum annual daily observed data, at 95% of confidence interval. As the result of the computed sub daily rainfall data, the highest rainfall value for the duration of 24 hrs. and 100-year return period was 83.86 mm, whereas the lowest rainfall value was obtained for the duration of 10min and 2 year of return period was 13.34 mm. The correlation coefficient between the IDF curves developed from observed data and the Computed IDF curves was (R 2 =0.99).
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