韩元汇率变动效果的不对称分析(Asymmetric Effects of Won Exchange Rate Changes)

Seungho Lee
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文分析了汇率变动对进出口指数单价和国内价格的不对称影响。通过回归和脉冲响应分析,我发现在大多数相关变量中存在明显的不对称效应。换句话说,当韩元贬值时,进出口单价的下降和生产者物价指数的上升更为明显。从政策角度来看,如果韩元持续贬值,不仅不能通过提高价格竞争力来促进出口,反而会带来沉重的通货膨胀压力。
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원貨환율 변동효과의 비대칭성 분석 (Asymmetric Effects of Won Exchange Rate Changes)
This paper analyses an asymmetric effect of exchange rate change to the unit price of export and import indices and domestic price. Using regressions and impulse response analyses, I found that obvious asymmetric effects exist in most of the relevant variables. In other words, the decrease of unit price of export and import and the increase of the producers' price index are more significant when the Korean won depreciates. From a policy perspective, it should be considered that the continuing depreciation of the won may cause a burdensome inflationary pressure instead of boosting up exports by strengthening price competitiveness.
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