用ECMWF风场作为强迫数据的波罗的海海浪预报

L. Tuomi, A. Sarkanen
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引用次数: 4

摘要

芬兰海洋研究所(FIMR)利用芬兰气象研究所(FMI) HIRLAM模式的风场作为强迫数据,每天对波罗的海地区进行四次海浪预报。现时的预测时间为54小时,但为了更好地服务航运和海上安全,预测时间将在2008年延长至72小时。由于FMI-HIRLAM的预报只延长到54小时,因此剩下的18小时或整个预报时间的强迫数据必须从另一个大气模式中获取。为此,对欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)大气模式的2007年风场进行了测试。与FMI和ECMWF大气模式的强迫风场进行的波浪预报比较表明,在波罗的海北部等开放海域,预报之间的差异相当小。然而,FMI风场的海浪预报效果更好,特别是在靠近海岸线的地方,因为在更高的分辨率(9 km)下,狭窄的海湾和复杂的海岸线结构可以比ECMWFpsilas (25 km)更好地描述。
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Wave forecasts for the Baltic Sea using ECMWF wind fields as forcing data
Wave forecasts for the Baltic Sea area are made at the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR) four times a day using wind fields from Finnish Meteorological Institutepsilas (FMI) HIRLAM model as forcing data. The forecast length at present is 54 hours but in order to better serve the shipping and safety at the seas the forecast length will be extended to 72 hours within the year 2008. Since the FMI-HIRLAM forecasts only extend to 54 hours the forcing data for the remaining 18 hours or alternatively for the whole forecast length has to be taken from another atmospheric model. For this purpose the wind fields from European Center of Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric model have been tested for year 2007. The comparison of the wave forecasts runs with forcing wind fields from FMI and ECMWF atmospheric models shows that in open sea areas like the northern Baltic proper the differences between the forecasts are quite small. However, the wave forecasts run with FMI wind fields are better especially close to the coastlines, since with higher resolution (9 km) narrow gulfs and complex structure of the shoreline can be better described than with ECMWFpsilas ~25 km resolution.
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