Applicability of NGGM near-real time simulations in flood detection

Abstract The GRACE mission has demonstrated a tremendous potential for observing mass changes in the Earth system from space for climate research and the observation of climate change. Future mission should on the one hand extend the already existing time series and also provide higher spatial and temporal resolution that is required to fulfil all needs placed on a future mission. To analyse the applicability of such a Next Generation Gravity Mission (NGGM) concept regarding hydrological applications, two GRACE-FO-type pairs in Bender formation are analysed. The numerical closed loop simulations with a realistic noise assumption are based on the short arc approach and make use of the Wiese approach, enabling a self-de-aliasing of high-frequency atmospheric and oceanic signals, and a NRT approach for a short latency. Numerical simulations for future gravity mission concepts are based on geophysical models, representing the time-variable gravity field. First tests regarding the usability of the hydrology component contained in the Earth System Model (ESM) by the European Space Agency (ESA) for the analysis regarding a possible flood monitoring and detection showed a clear signal in a third of the analysed flood cases. Our analysis of selected cases found that detection of floods was clearly possible with the reconstructed AOHIS/HIS signal in 20% of the tested examples, while in 40% of the cases a peak was visible but not clearly recognisable.