A Method and a Model for Risk Assessment of GNSS Utilisation with a Proof-of-Principle Demonstration for Polar GNSS Maritime Applications

: The GNSS positioning performance is commonly defined and described in terms unspecified to particular GNSS-based application. The approach causes difficulties to GNSS application developers, operators, and users, rendering the impact assessment of GNSS performance on the GNSS application Quality of Service (QoS) particularly difficult. Here the Probability of Occurrence (PoO) Model is introdu ced, which allows for a risk assessment of the probability for the GNSS positioning accuracy failure to meet the requirements of the particular GNSS-based application. The proposed PoO Model development procedure requires a large set of position estimation errors observations, which shall cover a range of classes of positioning environment (space weather, troposphere, multi -path etc.) disturbances affecting GNSS positioning accuracy. As result, the PoO Model becomes a tool that returns the probability of failure in meeting the positioning accuracy requirements of the GNSS applications considered, thus providing the input for a GNSS deployment risk assessment. The proposed PoO Model and its development procedure are demonstrated in the case of polar region positioning environment, with raw GNSS pseudorange observations taken at the International GNSS Service (IGS) Network reference station Iqualuit, Canada are used for the PoO Model development. The PoO Model proof-of-principle is then used to estimate the probability of the unmet required positioning accuracy for a number of polar maritime navigation applications. Manuscript concludes with a discussion of the PoO Model benefits and shortcomings, a summary of contribution, and intentions for the future research.