{"title":"交通模型与实际道路交通及其结构的差异","authors":"Agnieszka Łukasiewicz, M. Świtała","doi":"10.7409/RABDIM.020.005","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents two models of traffic forecasting developed for two completed road construction projects in two cities of Poland: Lublin and Poznan. The predictions from both models were compared with the field data. In the first part the article presents the currently used model for computational determination of road projects’ viability, including indication of relationships between road traffic forecasts on the one hand and actual road operations and viability of road projects on the other. The second part presents results of various international studies on road projects in order to show the differences between the predicted and the actual traffic volumes, which is typical for most developed countries. Then, the article discusses the differences observed between the model outputs and the actual traffic and its structure in the analysed road projects. Finally, the authors put forward their conclusions regarding the inconsistencies between the traffic models (as well as the resulting traffic forecasts) and the actual transport performance.","PeriodicalId":44000,"journal":{"name":"Roads and Bridges-Drogi i Mosty","volume":"38 1","pages":"79-91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5000,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Differences between the traffic model and the actual road traffic and its structure\",\"authors\":\"Agnieszka Łukasiewicz, M. Świtała\",\"doi\":\"10.7409/RABDIM.020.005\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The paper presents two models of traffic forecasting developed for two completed road construction projects in two cities of Poland: Lublin and Poznan. The predictions from both models were compared with the field data. In the first part the article presents the currently used model for computational determination of road projects’ viability, including indication of relationships between road traffic forecasts on the one hand and actual road operations and viability of road projects on the other. The second part presents results of various international studies on road projects in order to show the differences between the predicted and the actual traffic volumes, which is typical for most developed countries. Then, the article discusses the differences observed between the model outputs and the actual traffic and its structure in the analysed road projects. Finally, the authors put forward their conclusions regarding the inconsistencies between the traffic models (as well as the resulting traffic forecasts) and the actual transport performance.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44000,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Roads and Bridges-Drogi i Mosty\",\"volume\":\"38 1\",\"pages\":\"79-91\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-03-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Roads and Bridges-Drogi i Mosty\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.7409/RABDIM.020.005\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Roads and Bridges-Drogi i Mosty","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.7409/RABDIM.020.005","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Differences between the traffic model and the actual road traffic and its structure
The paper presents two models of traffic forecasting developed for two completed road construction projects in two cities of Poland: Lublin and Poznan. The predictions from both models were compared with the field data. In the first part the article presents the currently used model for computational determination of road projects’ viability, including indication of relationships between road traffic forecasts on the one hand and actual road operations and viability of road projects on the other. The second part presents results of various international studies on road projects in order to show the differences between the predicted and the actual traffic volumes, which is typical for most developed countries. Then, the article discusses the differences observed between the model outputs and the actual traffic and its structure in the analysed road projects. Finally, the authors put forward their conclusions regarding the inconsistencies between the traffic models (as well as the resulting traffic forecasts) and the actual transport performance.
期刊介绍：
The quarterly journal Roads and Bridges – Drogi i Mosty is published by the Road and Bridge Research Institute since September 2012 as a bilingual English-Polish journal. From 2002 to 2012 the journal was printed under the title Drogi i Mosty. The journal mission is to promote current achievements in science and technology in the field of road and bridge engineering. The journal is intended as a forum of the exchange of innovative concepts and solutions between the researches from different countries. Original scientific and technical papers in the field of civil engineering and related engineering sciences are published. The scope of Roads and Bridges – Drogi i Mosty includes design, construction, maintenance and safe use of roads, bridges, airports and other transportation structures.
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