大流行应对:危机时期的风险规划

Lucas White Alasdair Engelhardt
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摘要

新冠肺炎危机让许多经济参与者措手不及,无法采取行动。对其影响和原因的研究很少,缺乏适当的对策。本文调查了危机的进展,并分析了风险管理不理想出现的潜在原因。它为公司提供了如何最好地应对这种情况的建议。除了目前的情况,两个过去的危机以及两家公司的相反战略进行了审查,目的是对他们的风险管理战略得出明智的结论。现代方法强烈关注数据驱动的检查导致一维的方法,无法反映复杂的相互关系。本文认为,现有的风险管理体系已经全面建立,主要问题在于个人的行为模式,他们要么不能看到,要么不愿意看到存在的风险。这导致风险被识别,但在随后的决策过程中同时被忽略的情况。
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Pandemic Response: Risk Planning in Times of a Crisis
The COVID-19 crisis caught many economic players unprepared and unable to act. Little research has been conducted on its impacts and reasons for the lack of appropriate countermeasures. This paper investigates the progress of the crisis and analyzes potential reasons for the emergence of unsatisfactory risk management. It gives advice for companies on how to cope with the situation best. In addition to the current situation, two past crises as well as the contrary strategies of two companies were examined with the aim of drawing sensible conclusions towards their strategies of managing risk. Modern methods with a strong focus on data-driven examination lead to one-dimensional approaches that are unable to reflect complex interrelations. The paper concludes that existing risk management systems are already set up in a comprehensive way and that the main issue lies within behavioral patterns of individuals who are either unable or unwilling to see existing risks. This leads to situations in which risks are identified, though concurrently ignored in subsequent decision-making processes.
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