气候变化综合评估模式的不确定性

Q1 Arts and Humanities Perspectives on Science Pub Date : 2022-01-18 DOI:10.1162/posc_a_00417
M. Tavoni, Giovanni Valente
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引用次数: 5

摘要

综合评估模型在气候变化科学和政策研究中发挥着重要作用。与用于解决社会相关问题的其他广泛使用的计算工具类似,综合管理模型需要考虑表征过程和社会经济反应的关键不确定性。就气候变化而言,鉴于气候的长期性以及技术和人类系统的高度不确定性,这些问题尤其复杂。在这里,我们借鉴了社会问题数学建模的哲学讨论,并回顾了不确定性在气候经济建模中的作用。与文献一致,我们强调了认知不确定性在iam中的关键作用。我们认为,模型的规范组成部分,比物理和社会技术经济组成部分更充满不确定性,但也最不容易理解。我们建议一个研究议程,以探索评估框架的不确定性,超越目前的隐含规范。
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Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change
Abstract Integrated assessment models (IAMs) play a major role in the science and policy of climate change. Similarly to other widely used computational tools for addressing socially relevant problems, IAMs need to account for the key uncertainties characterizing processes and socio-economic responses. In the case of climate change, these are particularly complex given the very long-term nature of climate and the deep uncertainty characterizing technological and human systems. Here we draw from philosophical discussion of mathematical modeling of social problems and review the role of uncertainty in climate-economic modeling. In agreement with the literature, we highlight the crucial role of epistemic uncertainty in IAMs. We posit that the normative components of models, more than the physical and socio-techno-economic ones, are the most fraught by uncertainty and yet the least understood. We suggest a research agenda to explore uncertainties of evaluation frameworks, transcending the current implicit normativity of IAMs.
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来源期刊
Perspectives on Science
Perspectives on Science Arts and Humanities-History and Philosophy of Science
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
48
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