Assessment of breast cancer risk in Libyan women using the gail model

Background/Aim: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in Libyan women. Studies of breast cancer risk assessment in Libyan women are not available, and it is important to detect people at high risk for preventive and screening measures. The aim of this study is to estimate the 5-year and lifetime risk of breast cancer in Libyan women using the Gail model. Subjects and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 918 Libyan women ≥35 years. The Gail model was used to calculate the 5-year and lifetime risks of developing breast cancer. Risk factors such as age at menarche and first live birth, number of previous breast biopsies, family history, and ethnicity were considered in the model. Results: The mean age of women was 46.9 ± 8.7 years. The mean 5-year and lifetime risks were 1.0 ± 0.6 and 10.7 ± 4.8, respectively. A significant correlation was found between 5-year and lifetime risk and age at menarche, family history, previous breast biopsy, and ethnicity (P < 0.05). Conclusion: The risk estimates obtained from the Gail model could be improved if the risk factors involved are corrected for the Libyan population by conducting cohort studies with long follow-up to calculate the relative risks caused by each factor. In particular, the risk of different ethnic groups should be estimated and a modified model developed for Libyan women.