东亚和东南亚出口绩效的决定因素

Juthathip Jongwanich
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引用次数: 106

摘要

本文考察了八个东亚和东南亚经济体的出口决定因素,重点是零部件在总出口中的重要性日益增加。为了了解零部件出口是否“特殊”并进行比较,对三种不同出口类别的出口方程进行了估计:商品出口总额、制造业出口以及机械和运输设备出口(SITC 7)。分析基于1993-2008年的数据,这一时期零部件贸易迅速发展。这些估计表明,垂直一体化跨境生产过程中零部件出口构成的重要性日益增加,这往往削弱了实际汇率与出口业绩之间的联系。世界需求和供给方面的因素,包括外国直接投资,在决定出口业绩方面往往变得更加关键。
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Determinants of Export Performance in East and Southeast Asia
This paper examines the determinants of exports in eight East and Southeast Asian economies, with an emphasis on the increasing importance of parts and components in total exports. To see whether exports in parts and components are ‘special’ and to allow comparisons, export equations are estimated for three different export categories: total merchandise exports, manufacturing exports and exports of machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7). The analysis is based on data for 1993–2008, a period over which parts and components trade burgeoned. The estimations indicate that the growing importance in the export composition of parts and components within vertically integrated cross-border production processes has tended to weaken the nexus of real exchange rate and export performance. World demand and supply-side factors, including foreign direct investment, tend to become more crucial in determining export performance.
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