Food Security Risks of Countries along the Belt and Road in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered concerns about the global food crisis, thus identification of food security risks constitutes an important basis for responding to the influence of the pandemic. In this study, the influence path of the pandemic on food security was analyzed first. Then, the risk nodes of the trade network of countries along the Belt and Road were identified by complex network analysis. Further, food security risks were comprehensively assessed, and dominant risk types were systematically determined by using a four-dimensional integrated food security risk assessment model. According to the results: (1) The COVID-19 pandemic adds to the uncertainty of food security, lowers the efficiency and stability of international trade, highlights the importance of domestic supply, and exposes the vulnerability of external dependence. (2) The Main Cereals Trade Network (MCTN) presents typical scale-free features in the Belt and Road, and core countries significantly affect the stable service of the network. However, as spreading of COVID-19, these countries may pose potential risks to the global food market in the future, by disrupting MCTN. (3) The possession of cereals less