智利是发展的榜样吗?

R. Ffrench-Davis
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引用次数: 1

摘要

自1973年皮诺切特将军独裁统治下实施新自由主义改革以来,智利经济通常被高度赞扬为取得了成功。然而,在过去的40年里,包括了不同政策方针和显著不同结果的不同时期;因此,既不存在唯一的模式,也不存在唯一的结果。这40年的增长是温和的,平均每年4.2%:在16年的独裁统治期间,平均增长率为2.9%(很低),在25年的民主统治期间,平均增长率为5.1%,尽管在最初几年(1990- 1998年)达到了7.1%的强劲增长,在过去15年里,增长率仅为3.9%。因此,有时智利的表现更接近于成为发展的“典范”,而有时则相反或介于两者之间。我们以三个时期(1973-81年、1990-95年和2008-13年)为重点,探讨了潜在的解释变量和建立“发展榜样”的一些经验教训。
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Is Chile a Role Model for Development?
The Chilean economy is usually highly praised as having been successful since the imposition of neo-liberal reforms under the dictatorship of general Pinochet in 1973. However, the four decades that have elapsed include sub-periods with quite different policy approaches and notably diverse outcomes; thus, there is neither one unique model nor only one outcome. The four decades’ growth is moderate, averaging 4.2 per cent per year: it averaged 2.9 per cent (meagre) during the 16 years of dictatorship and a good performance of 5.1 per cent during a quarter-century of democracy, albeit with a vigorous 7.1 per cent in the initial years (1990-98) and a modest 3.9 per cent in the last 15 years. Hence, sometimes, Chile has performed closer to becoming a “model” for development, and at other times the opposite or something in between. Focusing on three episodes (1973-81, 1990-95 and 2008-13), we explore the underlying explanatory variables and some lessons for building “a role model for development”.
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