工作模拟:一个基于主体的劳动力市场模型

Jean-Daniel Kant, Gérard Ballot, Olivier Goudet
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在本文中,我们概述了WorkSim模型,这是一个基于代理的框架,旨在研究劳动力市场。该模型的第一个目标是在严格的库存流动会计中再现个人在重要工作状态之间的总流动:即就业(区分固定期限合同和无固定期限合同)、失业和不活动。对法国劳动力市场的法律制度进行了一些详细的建模,并约束了代理人在工作流动和工人流动方面的决策。企业和个人都是异质的,所有的决定都是基于有限理性做出的,然而雇主和工人都形成了不完美的预期。该模型的一个重要的理论新颖之处在于我们考虑了多工作企业和对企业个体需求的冲击。雇主在决定合同类型时考虑到预期的冲击。一旦模型被校准,第二个目标是描述所研究的劳动力市场的性质,特别是两种合同的不同作用及其对失业的影响。要做到这一点,首先要检查劳动力流动和存量的模式,其次要进行敏感性实验,修改某些外生参数和变量,如总需求。然后,我们使用该模型作为试验劳动力市场政策的工具,包括法国劳动法的变化。
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WorkSim: An Agent-Based Model of Labor Markets
In this paper, we provide an overview of the WorkSim model, an agent-based framework designed to study labor markets. The first objective of this model was to reproduce, within rigorous stock-flow accounting, the gross flows of individuals between important work-states: i.e., employment (distinguishing fixed term contracts and open-ended contracts), unemployment and inactivity. French legal institutions of the labor market are modelled in some detail and constrain the decisions of the agents on job flows and worker flows. Firms and individuals are heterogeneous and all decisions are taken on the basis of bounded rationality, yet employers as well as workers form imperfect anticipations. One important theoretical novelty of the model is that we consider multi-job firms and shocks on the individual demand of the firms. Employers consider anticipated shocks when they decide on the types of contract. Once the model was calibrated, the secondary objective was to characterize the nature of the labor market under study, and notably the differentiated roles of the two types of contracts and their impact on unemployment. This is achieved, first by examining the patterns of flows and stocks of labor and secondly by sensitivity experiments, modifying certain exogenous parameters and variables such as total demand. We then used the model as a tool for experimenting labor market policies, including changes in the labor law in France.
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