评估乌克兰区域经济差异中的危机动态模型,以确保各区域的经济安全

IF 1.4 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Millennium - Journal of International Studies Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.14254/2071-8330.2023/16-1/12
O. Shevchenko, Z. Varnalii, G. Kharlamova, N. Kuzmynchuk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

乌克兰区域社会经济发展指标的不平衡性的增加,除了造成国家福利的恶化外,还造成了区域经济安全的变化。因此,有必要发展新的理论和实践方法来评估这种差异并预测其动态。在本文中,以乌克兰为例,提出了一个在区域发展差异中模拟危机和灾难的工具包。本研究的目的是创建评估乌克兰地区差异中的危机动态的模型,以便开发确保该地区经济安全的工具。为达到这一目的,确定了下列任务:评价趋同-发散过程和区域差距指标的长期相互作用;根据各地区差异程度,模拟各地区社会经济发展领域可能出现的危机和灾难;区域差异与经济安全水平之间的相互依存关系。危机动态评估的结果是一套可能在乌克兰地区发生的灾难的预测模型。这样就可以获得可靠的结果,以便对社会经济制度中差异的稳定因素进行定性分析,考虑到决定国家发展特点的不同时间间隔。构建的模型阵列是研究差异指标动态中的危机过程的有效工具,因为它们允许识别和更彻底地调查区域经济发展中的非线性周期性过程,以及预测经济安全水平的变化。这样一套工具可以制定区域和国家平衡发展战略,并确保区域经济安全。
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Models for assessing crisis dynamics in disparities of Ukraine’s regional economy to ensure the economic security of regions
The increase in the unevenness of indicators of regional socio-economic development in Ukraine is causing changes in regional economic security, in addition to the deterioration of national welfare. Therefore, there is a need to develop new theoretical and practical approaches for assessing such disparities and forecasting their dynamics. In this article, a toolkit for modelling crises and catastrophes in disparities of regional development is presented, using the example of Ukraine. The purpose of this study is to create models that assess the crisis dynamics in regional disparities in Ukraine, in order to develop tools for ensuring economic security in the region. To achieve this purpose, the following tasks have been identified: to evaluate convergent-divergent processes and the long-term interaction of regional disparity indicators; to simulate possible crises and catastrophes in various spheres of socio-economic development of regions according to the levels of their disparities; and to demonstrate the mutual dependence between disparities of the regions and levels of their economic security. The result of the crisis dynamic assessment is a set of predictive models of possible catastrophes that may occur in Ukraine's regions. This allows for obtaining reliable results for the qualitative analysis of stability factors of disparities in the socio-economic system, accounting for different time intervals that determine the peculiarities of the country's development. The array of constructed models is an effective tool for researching crisis processes in the dynamics of disparity indicators, as they allow for identifying and more thoroughly investigating non-linear cyclical processes in regional economic development, as well as predicting changes in levels of economic security. Such a toolkit allows for the development of a strategy for balanced regional and country development, and for ensuring regional economic security.
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CiteScore
3.10
自引率
8.00%
发文量
17
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