区域数字空间:发展因素评估及其对社会经济增长的影响

V. Akberdina, I. Naumov, S. Krasnykh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

俄罗斯地区数字空间发展的异质性是由于与社会经济福祉总体水平相关的许多因素的作用。数字空间的形成和扩展也对区域社会经济发展产生影响。本研究的假设是假设区域形成的数字空间与其发展的社会经济指标之间存在双向关系。该研究的目的是确定该地区数字空间形成的具体情况,评估其发展因素以及与该地区社会经济发展指标的因果关系。本文提出了一种方法论方法,其特点是系统地运用了空间自相关分析方法、面板数据回归分析方法和格兰杰因果关系检验方法。在此基础上,根据数字空间的发展水平划分了三组区域,并确定了数字空间发展的关键因素。在第一组区域,数字空间的高水平发展是由于积极使用先进的生产技术和大量的GRP。在包括该国主要生产中心在内的第二类地区,数字空间的发展不仅受到领土经济状况的影响,而且受到其财政安全的影响。第三类区域的数字空间发展的特点是数字基础设施的发展及其使用水平较弱,不仅受到生产总值的数量和预算拨款的重大影响,而且受到零售贸易营业额和先进技术的积极使用的重大影响。通过格兰杰检验的因果关系研究,我们建立了数字空间对三组区域社会经济发展指标的负向影响,从而证实了我们提出的假设。所使用的方法方法和建模结果可用于寻找区域数字空间发展的最佳机制,以确保社会经济的平衡发展。
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Digital Space of Regions: Assessment of Development Factors and Influence on Socio-Economic Growth
The heterogeneity in the development of the digital space of Russian regions is due to the action of many factors related to the overall level of socio-economic well-being. The formation and expansion of digital space, too, has an impact on the socio-economic development of regions. The hypothesis of the study is an assumption that there is a two-way relationship between the digital space formed in the regions and the socio-economic indicators of their development. The purpose of the study is to identify the specifics of the formation of digital space in the regions, to assess the factors of its development and the cause-and-effect relationship with the indicators of socio-economic development of the territories. The article presents a methodological approach, the feature of which is the systematic use of methods of spatial autocorrelation analysis, methods of regression analysis on panel data and Granger causal relationship testing. As a result of this study, three groups of regions were identified according to the level of the development of digital space and the key factors of its development were identified. In the first group of regions, the high level of digital space development is due to the active use of advanced production technologies and a significant volume of GRP. In the regions of the second group, which included the leading production centers of the country, the development of the digital space is influenced not only by the economic condition of the territories, but also by their fiscal security. The development of the digital space in the regions of the third group, which are characterized by a weak level of the development of digital infrastructure and its use, is significantly influenced not only by the volume of the GRP produced and the budgetary provision, but also by the turnover of retail trade and the active use of advanced technologies. The study of cause-effect relationships using the Granger test allowed us to establish an inverse impact of the digital space on the socio-economic development indicators of the three groups of regions, thus confirming the hypothesis put forward. The used methodological approach and modeling results can be used to find optimal mechanisms for the development of the regions' digital space in order to ensure balanced socio-economic development.
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