用于精确生产和兽医服务的高度混合苏丹短刺泽布牛活重估算的眼球和心脏周长模型

A. Alkhtib, O. Almasri, E. Burton, J. Wamatu
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摘要

养牛生产是非洲粮食安全的重要支柱。大多数非洲牛是与未知品种组成高度混合的。准确估计这些牛的活重(LW)将提高饲养、兽医服务和定价的准确性,从而提高盈利能力。本研究采用眼球法和心脏周长(HG)模型评估了杂交苏丹瘤牛的体重。测定了432头苏丹杂交品种Baggara牛的活重和HG。使用382个头生成了三个模型(一个简单线性模型、一个带box-cox变换LW的简单线性模型和一个二次模型),并使用50个头进行了验证。已发表的模型(LW (kg) = 3.54*HG (cm) - 322.63)使用本研究的数据进行验证。记录了一名饲养员和五名养牛人对LW估计的误差。所有模型均具有较高的R2(0.725 ~ 0.728)。然而,构建和发表的模型的第95百分位预测误差均大于20%。所有被试的LW估计的第95百分位误差都很高(>20%)。因此,HG模型和目测法不适合用于生产、兽医和销售目的的高度混合zebu牛的LW测定,因为它们容易产生较高的错误率。
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Eye-balling and heart girth models for live weight estimation of highly admixed Sudani Shorthorn Zebu Cattle for Precise Production and Veterinary Services
Cattle production is a key pillar of food security in Africa. The majority of African cattle are highly admixed with unknown breed composition. Accurate estimation of the live weight (LW) of these cattle would improve the precision of feeding, veterinary services, and pricing resulting in an improvement in profitability. This study assessed estimating LW of admixed Sudani zebu cattle using eyeballing and heart girth (HG) models. Live weight and HG of 432 Baggara cattle, an admixed Sudani breed, were measured. Three models (a simple linear, a simple linear with box-cox transformed LW, and a quadratic) were generated using 382 heads and validated using 50 heads. A published model (LW (kg) = 3.54*HG (cm) - 322.63) was validated using the data of this study. The error of LW estimation by a breeder and five cattlemen were recorded. All constructed models had high R2 (0.725 - 0.728). However, the 95th percentile of the prediction error of the constructed and published models was higher than 20%. The 95th percentile of LW estimation error of all participants was high (>20%). Accordingly, HG models and eyeballing are not suitable methods to determine the LW of highly admixed zebu cattle for production, veterinary, and marketing purposes as they are prone to a high rate of error.
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