电力供需不匹配对南非经济增长的影响

IF 3.1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI:10.1080/15567249.2022.2038731

Tichinashe Mabugu, R. Inglesi‐Lotz

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引用次数: 5

摘要

自2008年以来，南非经济经历了几次停电(计划外或作为减负荷计划的一部分)，可能是因为电力供应无法满足需求。本文在生产函数框架下考察了这种供需不匹配对国家经济增长的影响。为此，我们使用了1985年至2019年期间的自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)。研究发现，从长期来看，电力供给>需求的正错配(或盈余)促进了经济增长。这一发现为支持扩大电力供应和促进能源效率措施的必要性提供了证据，两者都将产生有利于经济增长的错配(盈余)。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The effect of mismatched supply and demand of electricity on economic growth in South Africa

ABSTRACT Since 2008, the South African economy has experienced several power cuts (unplanned or as part of a load-shedding schedule), presumably because of the inability of the electricity supply to cover the demand. This paper examines the impact of such a demand-supply mismatch on the country’s economic growth within a production function framework. To do so, we use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the period 1985 to 2019. The paper finds that a positive mismatch (or surplus) of electricity (supply>demand) boosts economic growth in the long run. This finding provides evidence that supports the necessity of electricity supply expansion and the promotion of energy efficiency measures that both will create a mismatch (surplus) conducive to economic growth.

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来源期刊

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

12.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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