利用类自然纳米技术进行技术圈再造的社会经济评估

V. Belozerov, M. Nikulin, V. Belozerov
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引用次数: 1

摘要

:介绍。最近,“类自然技术”一词出现在科学家和政治家的日常生活中,其中理所当然地包括所谓的替代能源(太阳能、风能、热能)。与此同时,尽管使用这些能源的装置是“季节性的”、低集中度的,但它们的使用正在迅速而随意地发展,许多经济学家和政治家错误地认为它们是基本的,误导了商业。本文在对“类自然技术”一词起源认识论分析的基础上,揭示了快速、不系统地使用风力发电机的无根据,甚至危害。有证据表明,认为大自然无法补偿人类经济活动的“神话”是不一致的,因此,根据俄罗斯科学院院长谢尔盖耶夫·s.m.院士的说法,“技术圈的再造”是必要的。与此同时,现代经济科学远远没有考虑到他的区域生物圈的同化潜力和其中的熵产函数的模型,而是倾向于模拟各种“循环和模式”,以及计算不同的“系数”,以预测“危机和平衡”,而没有考虑到自然和社会的相互作用。在这方面,一项关于确定“技术圈再造”在社会生命支持系统结构中的位置的科学和技术任务,并因此评估其有效性。方法、模型和工具。解决任务集,提出了使用“retro-forecast法”的社会经济损失的引入“自然纳米技术”,使用“工具”“时空分析”的方法,模型Leontief-Ford和自适应税收系统的“危害生产”,火的使用在解决问题和环境安全的“区域技术领域”俄罗斯南部(在道路运输基础设施,在城市和城镇,在建筑物和结构中),证明了它们在研究过程中的充分性和实用性。结果和讨论。本文介绍了俄罗斯“技术圈再造”效率成本建模的结果,特别是个别住宅建筑,以及在其资源供应(电、水和热)自治期间社会经济和环境损失变化的回顾性预测。该领域的国内创新产品(“舒霍夫”的风力涡轮机,大气冷凝水装置和电加热)将使农村定居点停止“总气化”,并比国外更经济地实现俄罗斯1000多万户个人住宅和约4000万户乡村住宅的资源分散供应。从而确定替代能源在俄罗斯电力、天然气、水和供热系统结构中的“真正地位”。结论。所提出的方法使我们能够确定所谓的可再生能源在城市和农村住区资源供应系统结构中的位置。与此同时,在风能和太阳能电池板领域提出的创新方案中,有可能出现更富有成效的设计解决方案,将“自治”扩展到区域中心和工人居住区的低层和多公寓建筑,而不是主要恢复具有锅炉房和小型热电联产的集中工程系统。
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Socio-economic assessment of the use of nature-like nanotechnologies for the reengineering of the technosphere
: Introduction. Recently, the term “nature-like technologies” has appeared in the everyday life of scientists and politicians, which quite deservedly include the so-called alternative energy sources (sun, wind, heat). At the same time, despite the fact that installations using these sources are “seasonal” and low concentrated, their use is rapidly and haphazardly developing, and many economists and politicians mistakenly consider them as basics, misleading business. Based on the analysis of the epistemology of the origin of the term "nature-like technologies", this article shows the groundlessness, and even the harm of the rapid and unsystematic use of wind turbines. Evidence is given of the inconsistency of the "myths" that Nature cannot cope with the compensation of the economic activity of mankind, therefore, according to Academician Sergeyev S.M., President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, "reengineering of the technosphere" is required. At the same time, modern economic science is far from taking into account in his models of the assimilation potentials of the biosphere of regions and the functions of entropy production in them, preferring to model various “cycles and modes”, as well as calculate different “coefficients” in order to predict “crises and equilibria”, without taking into account the interaction nature and society. In this connection, a scientific and technical task about determinating the “place of reengineering of the technosphere” in the structure of the life support systems of society, and, consequently, to evaluate its effectiveness. Methods, models and tools. To solve the tasks set, it is proposed to use the “retro-forecast method” of socio-economic losses from the introduction of “natural nanotechnologies”, using as “tools” the method of “spatio-temporal analysis”, model of the Leontief-Ford and adaptive taxation systems of “harm production”, the use of which in solving the problems of fire and environmental safety in the "technospheres of the regions" of the South of Russia (in road transport infrastructures, in cities and towns, in buildings and structures), proved their adequacy to the processes under study and usefulness. Results and discussion. The results of modeling the costs of efficiency of "reengineering of the technosphere" in Russia, in particular individual residential buildings, and a retro-forecast of changes in socio-economic and environmental losses during the autonomy of their resource supply (electric-ity, water and heat) are presented. It is shown that the production of domestic innovations in this area (“Shukhov’s” wind turbines, atmospheric water condensation devices and electric heating) will allow stopping the “total gasification” of rural settlements, as well as more economically than abroad, to implement decentralized supply of resources in Russia more than 10 million individual houses and about 40 million country houses, thus determining the “true place of alternative energy” in the structure of the Russian systems of electricity, gas, water and heat supply. Conclusion. The proposed approach allows us to determine the place of the so-called renewable energy in the structure of resource supply systems for cities and rural settlements. At the same time, it is possible that the emergence of more productive design solutions of the proposed innovations in the field of wind energy and solar panels will expand the "autonomization" to low-rise and multi-apartment buildings in regional centers and workers' settlements, instead of a major restoration of centralized engineering systems with boiler houses and mini- CHP.
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CiteScore
2.30
自引率
58.30%
发文量
37
审稿时长
8 weeks
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