罗马尼亚布拉索夫Meliss太阳直接辐照度模拟模型精度的实验评估

Camelia Liliana Moldovan, R. Păltănea, I. Visa
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摘要

太阳辐照度是太阳能转换系统设计的主要输入参数。太阳辐照度模拟模型精度较差,影响了太阳能转换系统的输出能量和使用寿命。本文对2016年7月全月的太阳直射度实测值进行了分析,根据日接收的太阳直射能量和太阳直射度的变异性,将其划分为晴天、部分晴天、部分阴天和阴天四类。根据这一分类,2016年7月仅确定了4个晴天。2013年7月、2014年7月和2015年7月采用相同的程序,整个四年(2013-2016年)监测期间有13天晴空。将选取的13个晴空日的太阳直射度实测值与Meliss晴空模式模拟的太阳直射度进行对比分析。进一步,对8:00-16:00时间间隔进行统计分析,评估测量值与模拟值之间的绝对误差、相对误差和均方根误差。结果表明,在13个晴空日中,模拟模型高估了11个晴空日中部的太阳直接辐照度。测量在位于罗马尼亚布拉索夫特兰西瓦尼亚大学研发研究所的可再生能源系统和回收(RESREC)研究中心进行。
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Experimental Assessment of the Meliss Simulation Model Accuracy of the Direct Solar Irradiance in Brasov, Romania
Abstract The solar irradiance is the main input parameter when designing solar energy conversion systems. A poor accuracy of the solar irradiance simulation models negatively affect the output energy and the durability of the solar energy conversion system. In the paper, the measured values of the direct solar irradiance in the entire month of July 2016 are analysed and, based on the daily received direct solar energy and the variability of the direct solar irradiance, the days are classified in four categories: clear sky days, partially clear sky days, partially cloudy days and cloudy days. Based on this classification, only four clear sky days were identified in July 2016. The same procedure was applied for the months of July 2013, 2014 and 2015 resulting 13 clear sky days in the entire monitoring period of four years (2013-2016). The measured values of the direct solar irradiance in these 13 selected clear sky days are comparatively analysed against the direct solar irradiance simulated with Meliss clear sky model. Further on, a statistical analysis is performed for the time interval 8:00-16:00 to evaluate absolute, relative and root mean square errors between the measured and simulated values. The results show that the simulation model overestimates, in eleven out of the thirteen clear sky days, the solar direct irradiance in the central part of the day. The measurements were performed in the Renewable Energy Systems and Recycling (RESREC) Research Centre located in the R&D Institute of the Transilvania University of Brasov, Romania.
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