非参数分级技术作为描述人口统计模式的通用框架

A. Kostaki, Javier M. Moguerza, Alberto Olivares, S. Psarakis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

特定年龄人口比率的毕业是许多学科特别感兴趣的主题,如人口统计学、生物统计学、精算实践和社会规划。为了估计各种人口现象的未知年龄特定概率,必须在假设真实概率随年龄的变化遵循平滑模式的情况下,对相应的经验率应用一些毕业技术。统计人口比率的经典方法是参数化建模。然而,为了毕业目的,也可以采用非参数技术。这项工作提供了一个适应,并评估核和支持向量机(SVM)在人口比率毕业的背景下。
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Nonparametric graduation techniques as a common framework for the description of demographic patterns
The graduation of age-specific demographic rates is a subject of special interest in many dis-ciplines as demography, biostatistics, actuarial practice, and social planning. For estimating the unknown age-specific probabilities of the various demographic phenomena, some graduation technique must be applied to the corresponding empirical rates, under the assumption that the true probabilities follow a smooth pattern through age. The classical way for graduating demographic rates is parametric modelling. However, for graduation purposes, nonparametric techniques can also be adapted. This work provides an adaptation, and an evaluation of kernels and Support Vector Machines (SVM) in the context of graduation of demographic rates.
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