1990-2021年塞尔维亚基本死亡率指标分解

I. Marinković
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Cardiovascular diseases, as the leading cause of death, contributed the most to positive changes in mortality. The biggest effect of life expectancy is the reduction of mortality rates due to diseases of the circulatory system in the 65-79 year old population. Observed by gender, the effect is greater in the female population, where cardiovascular diseases contribute to the extension of life expectancy by as much as 67% or by 2.4 years, while in the male population the importance of cardiovascular diseases in the extension of life expectancy is lower and amounts to 42% or by 1.9 years. Tumors, as the second most common cause of death in Serbia, contribute negatively to those aged 50 and over and positively to younger age groups. The overall effect on life expectancy is positive, and mortality rates in men decline until the age of 60. In women, rates increase from age 50 or older, and of all causes of death, only tumors have an overall negative effect on life expectancy growth. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

通过两个基本的死亡率指标,对塞尔维亚人口死亡率三十年(1990-2021年)的变化进行了研究。采用分解法计算人口老龄化对粗死亡率差异的影响,以及具体死亡率和主要死亡原因对预期寿命变化的贡献。粗死亡率表明,塞尔维亚的死亡强度非常高。大流行在过去两年中促成了创纪录的价值。总体而言,在1990年至2019年期间,年龄结构的负面影响是特定年龄死亡率的积极影响的两倍。女性人口的老龄化更为严重,这解释了女性粗死亡率增长更大的原因。数据显示,人口老龄化的重要性一直更加明显。所观察到的时间间隔的主要特点是,所有年龄段的死亡率都在下降,所有年龄组对预期寿命都有积极影响,塞尔维亚男女按年龄分列的死亡率下降模式不同。对预期寿命的最显著影响是婴儿死亡率的降低(占总贡献的五分之一),这是男性和女性人口的共同特征。在其他年龄组中,50岁以下的男性和50岁以上的女性的贡献更为显著。由于死亡率较高,青年和中年男子改善死亡率的空间比妇女更大,因此在这些年龄段的积极影响更为明显。主要死亡原因对塞尔维亚人口的负担比30年前减轻了。心血管疾病作为主要死亡原因,对死亡率的积极变化贡献最大。预期寿命的最大影响是降低65-79岁人口因循环系统疾病导致的死亡率。从性别来看,这种影响在女性人口中更大,心血管疾病对延长预期寿命的贡献高达67%或2.4年,而在男性人口中,心血管疾病对延长预期寿命的重要性较低,为42%或1.9年。肿瘤是塞尔维亚第二大最常见的死亡原因,对50岁及以上的人不利,对较年轻的年龄组有利。对预期寿命的总体影响是积极的,60岁以前男性的死亡率下降。在妇女中,死亡率从50岁或50岁以上开始上升,在所有死亡原因中,只有肿瘤对预期寿命增长产生总体负面影响。在其他原因中,应特别指出暴力死亡的重要性及其积极影响,因为所有年龄段的死亡率,特别是年轻人口的死亡率都有所下降。15-49岁男性人口的积极变化使预期寿命甚至增加了1岁。在女性人群中,在所有年龄段也存在正贡献,但效果要低得多。COVID-19大流行给塞尔维亚带来了过去70年来最高的死亡率增幅。与2017-2019年的平均水平相比,大流行第一年的死亡率上升了14%,第二年上升了34%。粗死亡率大幅上升,2020年男性的粗死亡率为18.0‰,2021年的最高值为每1 000人死亡21人。对于妇女,这一死亡率分别为15.9‰和19.0‰(分别为2020年和2021年)。与2019年相比,男女死亡率的变化完全是按年龄划分的死亡率增加的结果,而按年龄划分的人口分布变化在此期间的影响可以忽略不计。最后一个分析年份(2021年)显示,与大流行前相比,男性预期寿命减少了3.4岁。在此期间,塞尔维亚妇女的预期寿命下降幅度略小,为2.9年。
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Decomposition of basic mortality indicators in Serbia 1990-2021
The research of thirty-year changes in the mortality of the population of Serbia (1990-2021) is given through two basic indicators of mortality. Using the decompose method to calculated the effect of population aging on the difference between crude mortality rates, as well as the contributions of specific mortality rates and leading causes of death in the changes in life expectancy. The crude death rate shows that the intensity of dying in Serbia is very high. The pandemic contributed to record values in the last two years. Overall, in the period 1990-2019, the negative contribution of the age structure is twice as intense as the positive effect of age-specific mortality rates. Aging is more intense in the female population, which explains the greater increase in the crude death rate in women. The data show that the importance of demographic aging has always been more pronounced. The main characteristic in the observed time interval is that mortality decreases at all ages and that all age groups had a positive effect on life expectancy, as well as that men and women in Serbia have a different pattern of decreasing mortality by age. The most significant effect on life expectancy was the reduction of infant mortality (a fifth of the total contribution), a common feature of the male and female populations. In other age groups, men have more pronounced contributions up to the age of 50, and women in older cohorts. Due to higher mortality rates, the space for improving mortality is greater in young and middle-aged men than in women, so the positive effects are more pronounced at these ages. The largest number of leading causes of death burdens the population of Serbia less now than three decades earlier. Cardiovascular diseases, as the leading cause of death, contributed the most to positive changes in mortality. The biggest effect of life expectancy is the reduction of mortality rates due to diseases of the circulatory system in the 65-79 year old population. Observed by gender, the effect is greater in the female population, where cardiovascular diseases contribute to the extension of life expectancy by as much as 67% or by 2.4 years, while in the male population the importance of cardiovascular diseases in the extension of life expectancy is lower and amounts to 42% or by 1.9 years. Tumors, as the second most common cause of death in Serbia, contribute negatively to those aged 50 and over and positively to younger age groups. The overall effect on life expectancy is positive, and mortality rates in men decline until the age of 60. In women, rates increase from age 50 or older, and of all causes of death, only tumors have an overall negative effect on life expectancy growth. Among the other causes, the importance of violent deaths and their positive effect should be singled out, due to the reduction of mortality rates at all ages, especially among the younger population. Positive changes in the age of 15-49 years in the male population contribute to an increase in life expectancy of even 1 year. In the female population, a positive contribution is also present at all ages, but the effect is significantly lower. The COVID-19 pandemic brought the highest increase in mortality in Serbia in the last 70 years. Mortality increased by 14% in the first year of the pandemic, and by 34% in the second, compared to the 2017-2019 average. The crude death rate has increased tremendously and for men in 2020 it is 18.0‰, and in 2021 it will show a maximum value of 21 deaths per 1,000 persons. For women, this mortality rate is 15.9‰ and 19.0‰ (in 2020 and 2021, respectively). Changes compared to the values from 2019, for both sexes, are solely the result of the increase in mortality by age, while changes in the distribution of the population by age had a negligible effect in this period. The last analyzed year (2021) brings a drop in life expectancy for men of as much as 3.4 years compared to the period before the pandemic. Women in Serbia have a slightly smaller decline in life expectancy in this period of 2.9 years.
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