Dynamics of Social Protection in Context of Structural and Institutional Performances: A Disaggregate Analysis for Pakistan

This paper analyzes the dynamics of social protection expenditures in the context of structural and institutional characteristics across provinces in Pakistan. A rank and regression analysis is employed on a panel dataset for four provinces of Pakistan namely Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP), Balochistan, Sindh, and Punjab; over a period of 1988 to 2014.The analysis shows that KP gave more preference to education, health and, social security and welfare, and rank at the top in the respective social protection parameter. However, considering the structural and institutional features, KP shows a better performance in all social protection categories except social security and welfare. Punjab is in worst condition with respect to fiscal space generation, structural and institutional features in all social protection channels. Balochistan has better fiscal budget for subsidies and transfers but hasthe least structural and institutional features in utilizing these funds optimally. The Sindh province has the better structural and institutional performance for social protection provision but has comparatively low fiscal space for them. Theregression analysis results indicate that most of the structural and institutional features played a significant role in the determination of fiscal space for the concerned provinces. For Policy prospects, Sindh government needs to enhance the fiscal space for social protection purposes, whereas KP and Balochistan need to improve the required structural and institutional performance. In the case of Punjab, there is a need to enhance their fiscal space for social protection along with improved structural and institutional performances