俄罗斯在地缘政治动荡的中心:最终统治的迹象

Evgeny Balatsky
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摘要

. 本文研究了俄罗斯在未来二三十年转型为新的世界资本积累中心的一系列因素。我们方法的新颖之处在于,我们通过资本积累周期理论的棱镜来考虑当前阶段的全球地缘政治动荡,以确定世界经济体系未来发展的矢量。我们对这个话题进行了深入研究,形成了俄罗斯潜在优势的全面图景,这些优势非常广泛。因此,我们研究了以下现象:俄罗斯北极地区的地理冰量减少;俄罗斯从陆地大国转变为海洋大国;自然资源禀赋),哲学(世界体系同质性和异质性的辩证对抗),历史(世界资本积累中心角色的虚假竞争者综合症;民族的激情),政治(主权和帝国复仇主义者的游行,核综合症的扩散,反对政治和管理反对派的斗争的合法化),政治经济(资本积累的周期;世界资本积累中心;俄罗斯经济(加入世界资本主义体系),经济(国际经济制裁的有效性;通用技术;行业周期;监管和技术三合一),人口(人口诅咒),文化(俄罗斯文明对移民的开放,与其他民族相关的文明经验,高度的文明吸收),军事(混合战争的潜在和活跃阶段;混合战争悖论)、因素与管理效应(自主与专制管理、霸权与领导模式)。这帮助我们重建了1991年在俄罗斯联邦周围形成的制衡制度
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Russia in the Epicenter of Geopolitical Turbulence: Signs of Eventual Domination
. The paper investigates a set of factors contributing to Russia’s transformation into a new world capital accumulation center in the next two to three decades. The novelty of our approach lies in the fact that we consider the current phase of global geopolitical turbulence through the prism of the capital accumulation cycles theory in order to determine the vector of future development of the world economic system. We dig into the topic by forming a comprehensive picture of Russia’s potential advantages that are quite versatile. Thus, we look into the following phenomena: geographical (ice decline in the Russian Arctic; Russia evolving from a land power into a sea power; natural resources endowment), philosophical (dialectical confrontation of homogeneity and heterogeneity of the world system), historical (syndrome of false contender for the role of a world capital accumulation center; passionarity of the ethnos), political (parade of sovereignties and imperial revanchists, diffusion of the nuclear syndrome, legitimization of the struggle against political and managerial opposition), political economy (cycles of capital accumulation; world capital accumulation center; Russia’s economy joining the world system of capitalism), economic (effectiveness of international economic sanctions; general-purpose technologies; industry cycles; regulatory and technology triads), demographic (demographic curse), cultural (openness of the Russian Civilization to immigrants, its civilizing experience in relation to other peoples, high civilizational absorption), military (latent and active phases of hybrid warfare; hybrid warfare paradox), factors and management effects (autonomous and authoritarian management, hegemon and leader models). This helped us to reconstruct the system of checks and balances formed around the Russian Federation in
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自引率
40.00%
发文量
52
审稿时长
12 weeks
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