2019冠状病毒病大流行对2020年塞尔维亚过早死亡的影响

M. Galjak
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摘要

塞尔维亚正在经历COVID-19造成的大量死亡。表达这种死亡率的一种方法是衡量因这种疾病而丧失的潜在寿命年数。本文着眼于2020年大流行对塞尔维亚过早死亡的代价。我们使用塞尔维亚共和国统计局提供的2020年塞尔维亚死亡率的最终数据来衡量这一损失。通过地理、年龄和性别维度检查过早死亡率。总的来说,COVID-19直接损失了64.620年的潜在寿命,即每10万名75岁以下的人损失了1019.14年的潜在寿命。男性失去的潜在寿命是女性的2.5年。此外,塞尔维亚东部和南部地区的情况比任何其他地区都要糟糕得多。农村/城市的划分没有明确的模式,因为一些受灾最严重的城市是农村和城市。扩大了分析范围,纳入了对COVID-19导致过早死亡的经济成本的估计。2020年,过早死亡造成的损失超过3.4亿美元,到2021年底,当大流行结束时,这一数字可能会远远超过10亿美元。过早死亡对未来出生率的直接影响不会很明显,因为很少有50岁以下的妇女死亡,对未来出生率产生重大影响。
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The effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the premature mortality in Serbia in 2020
Serbia is experiencing a massive number of deaths due to COVID-19. One way to express this mortality is by measuring the years of potential life lost to this disease. This paper looks at the cost of the pandemic in 2020 to premature deaths in Serbia. The final data on mortality in 2020 in Serbia provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia is used to measure this loss. Premature mortality is examined through geographical, age, and sex dimensions. In total, 64.620 years of potential life were lost directly by COVID-19, i.e., 1019.14 years of potential life per 100 000 people younger than 75. Men lost 2.5 as many potential years of life then women did. Moreover, the region of eastern and Southern Serbia fared much worse than any other region. There is no clear pattern regarding the rural/urban divide, as some of the hardest-hit municipalities were rural and urban. The analysis was expanded to include the estimate of the economic cost of premature mortality due to the COVID-19. In 2020 more than $0.34 billion was lost to premature deaths, and by the end of 2021, this number will likely be well over $1 billion when the pandemic ends. The direct cost of premature deaths on future birth rates will not be pronounced as very few women younger than 50 died to affect future birth rates significantly.
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