一个几乎完全可预测的过程,没有最佳预测器

Dariusz Kalociński, Tomasz Steifer
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引用次数: 2

摘要

针对可计算预测问题,提出了一种新的否定结果。构造了一个非平稳二元随机过程,对于该过程,几乎可以肯定没有有效的预测方法能够达到预测误差的最小值,预测误差的最小值定义为预测序列与过程实现之间的归一化汉明距离。然而,由于预测误差的最小值为零,这一过程几乎可以肯定地有效预测到任意小的误差。
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An Almost Perfectly Predictable Process with No Optimal Predictor
A novel kind of a negative result is presented for the problem of computable prediction. A non-stationary binary stochastic process is constructed for which almost surely no effective method of prediction achieves the infimum of prediction errors defined as the normalized Hamming distance between the sequence of predictions and the realization of the process. Yet it is shown that this process may be effectively predicted almost surely up to an arbitrarily small error since the infimum of prediction errors is zero.
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