印度COVID-19病例传播的来源和控制感染的能力

J. Prasad, Arvind Kumar, Sudhirgouda Patil, Rajeshwari A. Biradar
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摘要

背景:研究印度COVID-19病例增加的来源,并评估政府为切断传染病链所做的努力。材料和方法:COVID-19数据来自Kaggle网站,该网站包含印度COVID-19患者的详细信息。此外,还对截至2020年7月2日的COVID-19情况进行了现场拍摄,以填补敏感性差距。在Microsoft Excel 2016统计软件中采用单变量和双变量技术进行分析。结果:在印度,前5例确诊病例为印度人,有国际旅行史,随后16例为意大利人。截至2020年3月4日,这21例病例在上述各邦被诊断出来,当宣布封锁时,病例已在印度24个邦出现。活跃病例数最高的最严重邦是德里,约为每10万人160例,病死率为每1000人治愈和死亡44.6例。活跃病例数第二高的是拉达克(每10万人中有147例),其次是马哈拉施特拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦和果阿邦。马哈拉施特拉邦的病死率最高(每1000例治愈和死亡79.6例),其次是古吉拉特邦、中央邦、西孟加拉邦、德里等。德里和泰米尔纳德邦在控制COVID-19方面的情况比其他邦更糟糕。最好的邦是梅加拉亚邦,活跃病例为0.3,死亡率为22.3,其次是贾坎德邦。结论:印度人从不同的国家旅行,印度政府应对COVID-19在全国的传播负责。德里和泰米尔纳德邦在控制COVID-19方面的情况比其他邦更糟糕。COVID-19活跃病例差异很大的原因可能是劳工运动引起的社区动荡。因此,为了遏制COVID-19,需要采取必要措施,提供更好的卫生设施,认识COVID-19的正面和负面影响,限制国家层面的公共活动,直到COVID-19无法控制为止。
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Sources of spreading COVID-19 cases and afford made to control the infection in India
Background: To study the source of increasing of COVID-19 cases in India, and also evaluate the afford government made to disconnect the chain of infectious disease. Materials and methods: COVID-19 data was obtained from website of Kaggle, which comprised details of individuals suffered with COVID-19 in India. Further, spot snap of COVID-19 situation as on 2 nd July, 2020 was also taken to fill up the gap susceptibility. Moreover, analysis was carried out by univariate and bi-variate techniques in Microsoft Excel 2016 statistical software. Results: In India, first five cases diagnosed with COVID were Indian, had international travel history and next 16 were Italian. These 21 cases were diagnosed in above mention states by 4th March, 2020, and when lockdown was declared, cases reached in 24 Indian states. The worst state with highest number of active cases about 160 per 100,000 population was in Delhi with Case Fatality Rate (44.6 per 1000 Cured and Deaths). Ladakh was second worst in highest number of active cases (147 per 100,000 population) followed by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Case Fatality Rate was highest in Maharashtra (79.6 per 1000 Cured and Deaths) followed by Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi etc. Delhi and Tamil Nadu was in worst situation in controlling of COVID-19 than the other state. The best state was Meghalaya with active cases 0.3 with alarming Case Fatality Rate 22.3 followed by Jharkhand. Conclusion: Indian travelled from different countries and Indian government were responsible for spreading of COVID-19 throughout country. Delhi and Tamil Nadu was in worst situation in controlling of COVID-19 than the other state. The reason for wide variation in active cases of COVID-19 may be unrest in community due to labour movement. Hence, for COVID-19 containment, there is need necessary steps for providing better health facilities, awareness of positive and negative effect of COVID-19 and restricting the state-wise public movement until COVID-19 will not come under control.
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