南古吉拉特邦Navsari地区气候变化异常的非参数检验研究

Neeraj Kumar
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摘要

Navsari地区9月降水量增加趋势最大,1月、7月、10月、11月和12月降水量为负。年时间序列的回归斜率约为12.35 mm/36年。最高气温在10月份的上升趋势最大,其次是12月和8月。下降趋势最大的月份是1月,其次是2月和7月。年时间序列的回归斜率约为0.025℃/36年。温度最低值的斜率(0.109°C/36年)与回归高值的斜率(0.111°C)确定,Kendall的tau统计量(0.492°C/36年),Kendall得分(310)。1 - 12月呈上升趋势。增长趋势最高的是11月,其次是3月和7月。这一发现表明,在0.308 ~ 0.390℃范围内,整个月份都有增加的趋势。就RH-I而言,9月份的增长趋势最高,其次是4月和6月。1月份出现了同样的下降趋势,其次是2月份和10月份。相对湿度- ii仅在9月份呈上升趋势,分别在1 ~ 8月和10 ~ 12月呈上升趋势。全月平均日照时数下降趋势最明显的是Navsari地区。所有气象要素在所有月份和季节均未发现显著趋势。各气象要素各月份的Sen′s斜率和回归斜率均有相似的变化趋势。
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Investigation of Climate Change Anomaly by Using Nonparametric Test for Navsari District of South Gujarat
Navsari district of rainfall was shows highest increasing rainfall trend obtained September and negative January, July, October, November and December. The regression slope of the yearly time series is about 12.35 mm/36 years. Maximum temperature shows the highest increasing trend in month October, followed by December and August. The month highest decreasing trend was noticed that January, followed by February and July. The regression slope of the yearly time series is about 0.025°C/36 years. Minimum temperature highest values of the slope (0.109°C/36 year) with high value of regression Slope of determination (0.111°C), the annual Kendall’s tau statistic (0.492°C/36 year), the Kendall Score (310). All the month January to December shows increasing trend. The highest increasing trend found that November, followed by March and July, respectively. This finding shows that all the month shows increasing trend with the range between 0.308°C to 0.390°C. In case of RH-I the highest increasing trend shows September, followed by April and June. Similarly decreasing trend was found that January, followed by February and October, respectively. Relative humidity-II increasing trend was found only at the September month 0.084%, the increasing trend was detected in January to August and October to December, respectively. The strongest trend in the Bright sunshine hour’s decline of all month’s average daily sunshine hours was for the Navsari district. No significant trends were detected in all months and seasons for all weather elements. A similar trend was found in Sen’s slope and regression slope all the months for all the weather elements.
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