DEVELOPMENT OF A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE CONFIRMABILITY OF THE AMPLITUDES OF STRUCTURES PREPARED FROM THE DEPOSITS OF THE MIDDLE CARBONIFEROUS IN THE PERM REGION

Link for citation: Galkin V.I., Suvorova A.S. Development of a statistical model for predicting the confirmability of the amplitudes of structures prepared from the deposits of the middle carboniferous in the Perm region. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Аssets Engineering, 2023, vol. 334, no. 8, рр. 129-136. In Rus. The relevance of the research is caused by the requirement to maintain the confirmability of resources of category D0 with an addition to reserves of categories C1+C2 at a high level. The assessment of the resources of the prepared structures is carried out by total petroleum systems in the presence of open industrial deposits of hydrocarbons in analog fields, as well as under the condition of mapping closed amplitude structures on reflective surfaces. One of the factors influencing the decrease in the confirmability factors is the change in the structural constructions from the prospecting and evaluation to the exploration stages of geological exploration. The main aim of the research is to create, based on retrospective data, a probabilistic prediction model that allows us to determine the most reliable hydrocarbon prospecting in the context of medium-carboniferous uplift deposits within the existing fund of prepared structures, adjust the current assessment of resources of category D0 and exclude drilling of new exploration and evaluation wells within unpromising objects. Objects. The author have created the database for the research, which includes information about 125 prepared structures removed from drilling from 1997 to 2021. It includes information about the amplitudes of structures in accordance with the materials for their preparation (Ap) and according to the updating of structural constructions based on the results of deep exploration, exploration drilling, seismic exploration in open fields, etc. (Aa). The research methodology is based on the use of mathematical statistics methods. The results. The correlation analysis of the amplitudes of structures based on the materials of passports and the amplitudes of structures updated according to deep drilling data was performed. According to the results of the analysis, the correlation field was divided into two subfields between Ap and Aa. When using a detailed statistical analysis of the Aa and Ap correlations between the subfields, a boundary value of 13 m was established, which made it possible to develop an individual probabilistic linear model for predicting the confirmability of the amplitude of the structure by the values of the Ap.