利用威布尔分布估计风电电势

A. Genç, Murat Erisoglu, A. Pekgor, G. Oturanç, A. Hepbasli, K. Ulgen
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引用次数: 102

摘要

本研究的主要目的是利用风速分布函数的两个威布尔参数,即形状参数k(无量纲)和尺度参数c (m/s)来估计风力发电潜力。在这方面,首先给出了一种使用三种不同技术(最大似然、最小二乘法和矩量法)估计威布尔参数的方法。然后将该方法应用于土耳其的一个地区。最后,将参数估计技术与蒙特卡罗模拟在不同样本量下进行了比较,确定了适合样本量的最佳参数估计技术。
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Estimation of Wind Power Potential Using Weibull Distribution
The main objective of the present study is to estimate wind power potential using the two Weibull parameters of the wind speed distribution function, the shape parameter k (dimensionless) and the scale parameter c (m/s). In this regard, a methodology that uses three various techniques (maximum likelihood, least squares, and method of moments) for estimating the Weibull parameters was given first. The methodology was then applied to a region in Turkey. Finally, the parameter techniques were compared to Monte-Carlo simulation in different sample sizes, and the best parameter estimation techniques belonging to the sample sizes were also determined.
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