运用数理统计方法评估区域投资潜力

I. Bolodurina, M. Bolodurina, K. M. Abelgazina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于俄罗斯联邦的每一个主体都有进行区域间和国际经济关系的充分权利,区域发展的指标在很大程度上取决于正在执行的投资战略,包括投资潜力的水平。在这方面,本文讨论了利用数理统计根据社会经济指标评估该地区投资潜力的紧迫任务,这使我们能够获得客观可靠的结果,并确保所使用方法的可扩展性及其应用于分析俄罗斯联邦其他地区投资潜力的可能性。采用相关分析和回归分析,对多重共线性进行了线性回归模型的研究。利用对奥伦堡地区投资吸引力指标的多维统计分析,使我们能够确定影响该地区固定资本投资量的最重要因素,其中包括:经济活动类型“建筑”所完成的工作量;人口的人均货币收入;制造生产的数量;劳动年龄人口占总人口的比例。根据相关分析和回归分析的结果,得出奥伦堡地区固定资产投资水平受农业、矿业和制造业等经济活动领域影响最为显著的结论。吸引投资到奥伦堡地区投资吸引力确定的部门优先事项将确保在该地区创造高绩效场所,增加区域生产总值,并为其他活动的发展带来乘数效应。
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Application of mathematical statistics methods to assess the investment potential of the region
Since each subject of the Russian Federation has full rights to conduct both interregional and international economic relations, the indicators of regional development largely depend on the investment strategy being implemented, including the level of investment potential. In this regard, the article deals with the urgent task of assessing the investment potential of the region based on socio-economic indicators using mathematical statistics, which allows us to obtain objective and reliable results, and also ensures the scalability of the methodology used and the possibility of its application to analyze the investment potential of other regions of the Russian Federation. Correlation and regression analysis was used, a linear regression model was studied for multicollinearity. The use of multidimensional statistical analysis of the investment attractiveness indicators of the Orenburg region allowed us to identify the most significant factors influencing the volume of investments in the fixed capital of the region, which include: the amount of work performed by the type of economic activity "Construction"; average per capita monetary income of the population; the volume of manufacturing production; the proportion of the working-age population in the total number. Based on the results of correlation and regression analysis, it is concluded that the level of investment in fixed assets of the Orenburg region is most significantly influenced by such areas of economic activity as agriculture, mining and manufacturing. Attracting investments to the identified sectoral priorities of the investment attractiveness of the Orenburg region will ensure the creation of high-performance places in the region, increase the gross regional product, and also give a multiplier effect for the development of other activities.
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