区域内人口差异:以塞尔维亚东南部为例(1980-2017)

G. Penev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

各共和国和各省之间相当明显的差异是前社会主义南斯拉夫人口发展的主要特点之一。在联邦国家解体后,所有新成立的州在人口上的异质性都减少了,随着时间的推移,变化导致了它们之间差异的消除。目前的政治现实使塞尔维亚共和国(不包括科索沃和梅托希亚)在人口方面或多或少成为同质地区。这种差异仍然存在,而且在一些较小的区域单位中尤为明显。塞尔维亚东南部地区由五个区(雅布拉尼茨基、尼萨夫斯基、皮罗茨基、皮辛斯基、托普利茨基)组成,特别引人注意。它包括人口结构相当不同的城市,在共和国一级,它们的生育率、死亡率、移徙和年龄结构等主要人口指标的值最低或最高。本文介绍了塞尔维亚东南部目前的人口状况,以及1980年以后在市政一级发生的变化。结论是,它们导致了该地区更大的人口同质化。这些变化为更有效的人口政策创造了条件。与此同时,迄今为止出现的区域内差异要求在地方社区一级采取不同的措施,以适应其具体需要。此外,论文指出了收集统计数据的实际困难,以及对结果解释的限制和谨慎。
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Intraregional demographic disparities: The case of the Southeastern Serbia (1980-2017)
Rather pronounced differences among the republics and provinces were among the main characteristics of the population development in the former socialist Yugoslavia. After the dissolution of the federal state, all the newly formed states were demographically less heterogeneous and changes over time led to the elimination of the differences among them. The current political reality has caused the Republic of Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohija) to become more or less homogenous area in demographic terms. The differences still exist and they are specifically pronounced in some smaller regional units. The region of Southeastern Serbia, consisting of five districts (Jablanicki, Nisavski, Pirotski, Pcinjski, Toplicki) attracts special attention. It includes municipalities that are demographically rather heterogenous and on republic level they have minimum or maximum values of the main demographic indicators of fertility, mortality, migration and age structure. The paper presents the current demographic situation in Southeastern Serbia, as well as the changes that took place after 1980 on the municipal level. It is concluded that they have led to the greater demographic homogenization of that area. Such changes create the conditions for a more effective population policy. At the same time, so far presented intraregional differences require differentiated measures at the local community level, adapted to their specific needs. Also, the paper points to real difficulties in collecting statistical data, as well as to limitations and caution regarding the interpretation of results.
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