利用地下水位波动和含水层试验估算地下水补给的不确定性

Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI:10.1590/2318-0331.282320220113
G. Penner, Rubens Takeji Aoki Araujo Martins, Salim Rodrigues, E. Wendland
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了实现地下水的可持续管理,地下水补给率和比产率是地下水资源分析和管理中最重要的因素,有时,这些参数的估算仍然是一个挑战。本文提出了一种地下水位波动法与含水层试验相结合的方法来估计和量化它们的不确定性。该方法至少需要三口井:两口带有液位传感器的仪器观测井,用于长期监测;另一口位于附近的泵井,用于含水层测试。Aqtsolv Demo软件支持测试解释,与Tartakovsky-Neuman提出的方法拟合最佳,比产率在2σ范围内变化,在9.4% ~ 10.6%之间。通过将比产率的不确定性(贝叶斯推理)和地下水衰退动态的不确定性传递给径流,得到补给的不确定性。充值的不确定性源于具体收益率的不确定性。该方法在巴西贝尔萨姆的帕尔联邦大学校园中得到了应用。在2020年9月3日至2021年9月30日期间,补给量估计为1078.9 mm,相关不确定性为129.5 mm,在2σ范围内,相当于降水的33.9%至39.8%之间。通过使用具有成本效益的仪器和解释方法,可以鼓励重复这种方法,以提供对特定地点的补给和特定产量的可靠估计。该条件有助于降低地下水管理预测的不确定性。
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Uncertainty in groundwater recharge estimation using groundwater level fluctuation and aquifer test
ABSTRACT For sustainable groundwater management the rate of groundwater recharge and specific yield are both of the most important elements in the analysis and management of groundwater resources, and, sometimes, estimation of these parameters remains a challenge. This research presents a combining approach of the water-table fluctuation method (WTF) with an aquifer test to estimate both and quantify their uncertainty. The methodology requires at least three wells: two instrumented observation wells with a level sensor for long-term monitoring and a pump well located nearby for aquifer testing. The test interpretation was supported by the Aqtsolv Demo software obtaining the best fit with the method proposed by Tartakovsky-Neuman, with a specific yield varying, in 2σ, between 9.4% and 10.6%. Recharge was estimated with WTF, and the uncertainty in recharge is obtained by propagating the uncertainties about the specific yield (Bayesian inference) and the groundwater recession dynamics to the WTF. The uncertainty about recharge stems from uncertainty about the specific yield. The approach was applied on the campus of the Federal University of Pará, Belém, Brazil. Recharge was estimated at 1078.9 mm, from 03/sep/2020 to 30/sep/2021, with an associated uncertainty of 129.5 mm in 2σ, which equates to a range between 33.9 and 39.8% in terms of precipitation. Through the use of cost-effective instrumentation and interpretation methodology, replication of that approach can be encouraged to provide reliable estimates of recharge and specific yield in a site specific. Such condition can be useful to reduce the predictive uncertainty of groundwater management.
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