用系统动力学方法分析牛肉供应链以提高可用性和供应链价值

Purnama Anaking, E. Suryani
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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要:研究重点是牛肉商品,其中牛肉需求数据继续按比例增长或与人口增长、国家人均收入和工业食品加工材料需求一致。另一方面,国内牛肉供应趋于减少,无法满足国内需求。此外,还存在向最终客户供货的问题。通过使用模型驱动的决策支持系统改进供应链流程来解决问题,对现有系统进行建模并构建新的场景以提高牛肉供应链绩效。模型驱动的决策支持系统使用系统动力学模型来适应关键变量或参数,这些变量或参数对连续性战略牛肉供应链有重要贡献。结果显示了一个政策方案,其成功指标的形式是将平均牛肉重值优化到每头牛300公斤,胴体百分比值为生命重的55%,预计赤字牛肉价值每年都会下降。在2027年,赤字值变小,为8520吨,最终在2028年转为盈余。模型驱动的决策支持系统输出场景的结果可以作为决策者的输入,以制定与牛肉食品部门相关的政策过程,以实现政府任务之一的粮食自给自足。
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Beef Supply Chain Analysis to Improve Availability and Supply Chain Value Using System Dynamics Methodology
Abstrak — The research focuses on beef commodity where beef demands data continue increasing proportionate or in line with increasing population, national per capita income, and the needs of industrial foods process materials. On the other hand, domestic beef supply tends to decrease so it can’t meet domestic demand. Furthermore, there are problems with fulfilling supplies to the end customer. The effort in solving the problems by improving the supply chain process using a model-driven decision support system, to model the existing system and build new scenarios to increase beef supply chain performance. The model-driven decision support system approaches using a system dynamics model to accommodate key variables or parameters that significantly contribute to the continuity strategic beef supply chain. The results showed a policy scenario with success indicators in the form of optimizing average beef weight values to 300 kgs per cattle and with carcass percentage value at 55% life weight, projecting deficit beef values decreasing in each year. At 2027 deficit value becoming small which is 8,520 tons, which ends up becoming surplus in 2028. The results of the model-driven decision support system output scenario can be functioned as input to the decision-maker to elaborate policy process related to the beef's food sector to achieve food self-sufficiency which one of the government missions.
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