金融海啸与中国经济

Wu Jing-lian
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引用次数: 2

摘要

从本质上讲,当前的金融海啸是全球金融体系的危机,其原因有三:(1)自20世纪70年代初布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来,摆脱监管的美元无法引导国际货币体系;(2)美国经济储蓄过低,通过向全球借贷来维持高消费水平;(3)美联储一直采取扩张性货币政策以及不健全的金融监管来支持美国资本市场的繁荣。至于中国,由于改革开放的30年,它深深地融入了全球化的进程。前20年见证了快速、长期的增长。但是,近年来,由于一些客观因素的影响,中国金融体系出现了很多泡沫。当前金融海啸对中国经济的影响主要有两个原因:(1)金融海啸导致中国金融体系泡沫的收缩,虚拟资产的消失导致流动性短缺,部分企业的资金链断裂;(2)国际购买力的下降导致中国出口订单减少,企业破产失业的危险随之加大。因此,一方面应开展国际合作,构建新的世界金融体系;另一方面,在短期内应更多地关注宏观经济的稳定和中小企业的问题。但是,最重要的是,通过进一步改革,转变经济发展方式,提高产业效率。
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The Financial Tsunami and China's Economy
By nature,the present financial tsunami is the crisis for the whole world's financial system,which is due to the following three reasons:(1) the American dollars freeing from regulation cannot guide the international monetary system since the falling-apart of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s;(2) the American economic savings are so low that the high consumption level is kept by way of borrowing from the whole world;(3) the Fed has always been adopted the expansionary monetary policy and flabby financial supervision to support the prosper of the American capital market.As for China,because of 30 years of the reform and opening to the world,it melts deeply into the process of globalization.The first 20 years witness a rapid,long-term growth.But,in recent years,there appear a lot of bubbles in China's financial system because of some objective factors.And there are two reasons why the present financial tsunami gives an impact on China's economy:(1) the financial tsunami causes the deflation of the bubbles in China's financial system and the disappearance of the virtual assets makes the liquidity in short supply as well as the fund chains break-down of some enterprises;(2) the decline of the international purchasing power makes China's export orders cut down and,accordingly,the danger of enterprises' bankruptcy and unemployment enlarge.Therefore,on the one hand,an international co-operation should be carried out so as to construct a new system of the world's finance;and on the other hand,for a short period of time,more attention should be paid to the stabilization of macroeconomy and to the problem of the small or middle enterprises.But,the most important is,by further reform,transforming the mode of economic development and enhancing the industrial efficiency.
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